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Mr. Simon Black, Ms. Ruo Chen, Ms. Aiko Mineshima, Victor Mylonas, Ian W.H. Parry, and Dinar Prihardini

, gas prices 23 percent, retail electricity prices 9 percent, and retail gasoline prices 8 percent ( Table 5 ). BAU prices for coal, gas, and electricity in Germany in 2030 (prior to further increases in carbon pricing) are higher than in most other G20 countries, so the percent increases tend to be lower in Germany. Table 5. Energy Price Impacts of $50 per tonne CO2 Price Coal Natural gas Electricity Gasoline Country Baseline Price, $/GJ Price Increase Baseline Price, $iGJ Price Increase Baseline Price, $JkWh Price Increase

International Monetary Fund

per each dollar in excess (or below) the baseline oil price of $22 per barrel. For instance, if the assumed real oil price is $30 per barrel, the optimal level of consumption out of hydrocarbon wealth is 6.8 percent of GDP, or about 2 percent of GDP above the level of consumption consistent with the baseline price of $22 per barrel. The government could maintain indefinitely consumption out of hydrocarbon wealth at its 2003/04 level relative to GDP (22 percent), only if the assumed real oil price were about $88 per barrel. Regarding the preservation of real per

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Colombia’s economy rebounded strongly in 2021 with 10.6 percent growth led by pent-up domestic demand, notably private consumption. Around 66 percent of the population is fully vaccinated against Covid-19 as of end-February and the economy continues to reopen more fully. While GDP has already reached pre-pandemic levels, employment has trailed in its recovery and macroeconomic imbalances have emerged. Amid strong demand, supply constraints, and rising commodity prices, rising inflation exceeded the upper limit of the central bank’s tolerance range in 2021. With demand-led growth and higher import prices, the current account deficit widened to 5¾ percent of GDP. Under staff’s assumptions for the evolution of the pandemic, above-potential growth around 5½ percent is expected in 2022, led by robust household consumption and a continued recovery of investment and exports. External vulnerabilities remain elevated with high external financing needs and tighter financial conditions. External risks remain elevated and an intensification of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine may impart considerable volatility in financial and commodity markets. Domestic risks are also tilted to the downside—including uncertainty around the evolution of the pandemic, political uncertainty with national elections this year, and slower implementation of the infrastructure agenda and peace accords.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

.4% Domestic Environmental Benefits from a $50/tCO2 Carbon Tax Economic cost Net benefit Gross benefit In percent of GDP -0.3 1.3 1.6 Revenue Carbon tax per ton of C02 $25 $50 $75 In percent of GDP 0.7 1.4 2.0 Energy Price Increase Carbon tax per ton of C02 Baseline price $25 $50 $75 Coal (US$3.0/GJ) 81% 161% 242% Natural gas (US$8.7/GJ) 13% 26% 39% Electricity (US$0.11/kWh) 31% 52% 70% Gasoline (US$0.53/liter) 13% 26% 38

International Monetary Fund

period, the long-term optimal consumption from hydrocarbon wealth would increase (decrease) by about ¼ percent of GDP for each dollar in excess of (below) the baseline oil price of $22 per barrel. For instance, if the assumed real oil price is $30 per barrel, the optimal level of consumption from hydrocarbon wealth is 6.8 percent of GDP, or about 2 percent of GDP above the level of consumption consistent with the baseline price of $22 per barrel. The government could indefinitely maintain consumption from hydrocarbon wealth at its 2003/04 level relative to GDP (22