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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
COVID-19 hit the economy hard, but a strong recovery is underway. Public debt, already elevated before the pandemic, has increased further. The government has embarked on a reform program ‘Europe Now’, which aims to arrest outward migration through a sharp minimum wage increase, labor tax wedge reduction, and the introduction of a progressive tax code. The financial sector appears to have withstood the COVID-19 shock well.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Guinea’s economic performance over the past four years fell significantly short of the authorities’ ambitious projections. Economic growth averaged 1.8 percent during 2012–15, significantly below the performance of peers, and GDP per capita is estimated to have fallen, likely inducing an increase in poverty. The economy is recovering from the effects of the Ebola epidemic. Growth is projected to rebound to 3.7 percent in 2016, on the back of higher electricity provision from the Kaleta hydroelectric dam and a strong increase in bauxite production. The medium-term outlook is favorable, but continues to be clouded by downside risks.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

1. Regional Comparison, 2009–13 2. Fiscal Developments, 2000–13 3. External Sector Indicators, 1996–2013 4. Monetary Developments, 2000–13 5. Banking System Vulnerabilities, 2003–141 TABLES 1. Selected Social and Economic Indicators 2a. Authorities Baseline Scenario, Summary of Central 2b. Authorities Baseline Scenario, Summary of Central Government Operations, 2010–19 3. Authorities Baseline Scenario, Central Government 4. Authorities Baseline Scenario, Balance of Payments 5. Authorities baseline scenario, Monetary Survey, 2010–19 6

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

universities are closed and public events are prohibited until further notice. The authorities have also implemented strict social distancing guidelines. 6. Projections under the authoritiesbaseline scenario suggest that real GDP growth for 2020 could decline from 5.5 percent, which was expected before the COVID-19 outbreak, to -5.8 percent. The authorities estimate a decline in tourist arrivals of about 60 percent when compared to 2019, with special impact in the second and third quarters of this year. Disruptions to production and services due to containment measures

International Monetary Fund

.8 Unemployment rate 3/ 7.8 8.0 6.8 7.5 7.0 7.5 6.3 7.2 6.7 7.2 6.0 6.7 6.4 6.7 Sources: National Statistical Service; Ministry of Economy and Finance; and IMF staff projections. 1/ This table corresponds to the text table in page 6 of the staff report. 2/ Authoritiesbaseline scenario as specified in the December 2007 SGP update. 3/ ESA95 basis. Greece: Revised Medium–Term Baseline Scenario, 2008–13 1/ 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Projection Domestic economy

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

more optimistic while staying alert vis-à-vis some of the risks pointed to by staff. Projections on both sides are consistent with respective perceptions. The authoritiesbaseline scenario backed by the Post-Ebola Recovery Plan assumes growth to stand at 5.1 percent in the medium term against 4.5 percent under staff’s conservative scenario. Moreover, the government’s five-year plan under discussion set more ambitious goals. High public and private investments should further boost electricity supply notably through the Souapiti dam, enhance road infrastructure

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

percent, close to the authoritiesbaseline scenario. The Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy, which was adopted by the Parliament last December, is based on a gradually decelerating GDP growth, from 6.4 percent in 2022, to 5.1 percent in 2023, and 4.5 percent in 2024. Staffs projection for 2022 is close to that of the authorities but has a stronger deceleration over the two outer years, with GDP growth at 2.8 percent and 2.5 percent. This difference in the medium-term growth path is the main source of divergence between the authorities’ and staff’s views on the medium

International Monetary Fund

assumes a gradual deceleration of economic growth to 3 percent by 2030. At that time, the pension fund would still hold assets of around 30 percent of GDP, but these resources would be depleted during the following 20 years, and a financing gap of 50 percent of GDP would open up by 2050. This trajectory corresponds to a drawdown of reserves of about 4 percent of GDP per year. The authoritiesbaseline scenario projects a growth path that lies permanently 1½ percentage points above the EU-15 average for the period of 2010-50, and thus may prove optimistic ( Economic