This Selected Issues paper discusses a growth-at-risk (GaR) model which is used to compute a distribution of expected GDP growth for Benin. The model predicts growth rates of ~6.7 percent for 2019 and a range of 6.4–6.8 percent in the medium-term (depending on the specification). Risks to future growth are assessed to be tilted to the downside. 2019 GDP growth is estimated around 6.7 percent, on average, across several specifications. The model considers external factors (world trade, global financial conditions, trade policy uncertainty, and US consumer sentiment), country-specific exposures to external factors (commodity terms of trade and trade-partner growth), and domestic factors (domestic financial conditions, fiscal policy, and the exchange rate). The analysis reveals that growth projections estimated both for the median and mode are slightly higher conditioned on 2018 data, yet when expectations about 2019 are considered using World Economic Outlook projections they fall. Overall, risks seem to be tilted to the downside. Medium term growth is estimated at between 6.4 and 6.8 percent. Risks to growth remain tilted to the downside, yet less skewed than in the short term.
auditinggovernmentactivities. A Court for the repression of economic and terrorism crimes was created in August 2018. Finally, a Law on Strengthening Public governance was passed by the Parliament in February 2019.
Pending issues . Legislative and institutional weaknesses and capacity constraints are hampering the implementation of the anti-corruption framework. The ANLC lacks independence and its activity reports are not made publicly available. The 2001 anti-corruption strategy has not been updated Benin’s UNCAC implementation review report adopted in 2017 also