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International Monetary Fund

’s wood-based approach to climate change may not work for all countries—given climate differences and the trade-offs between agriculture and tree growth—it offers a timely reminder to rethink how we can harness nature to address the global challenge of climate change. Dominica develops resilience The island nation of Dominica, home to some of the Caribbean’s most breathtaking natural beauty, lies smack in the middle of Hurricane Alley. Because of its rugged topography, with dense mountain rain forests and nine active volcanoes, most of the country’s 72

International Monetary Fund
Ethiopia’s growth and transformation plan (GTP) for the periods 2010/2011 and 2014/2015 is reviewed by the joint staff advisory note has been discussed in this study. The macroeconomic framework designed to improve the GTP’s growth is outlined. The priority actions and critical areas for pro-poor growth taken by the government are discussed in detail. Implementation of framework, monitoring, and evaluation is also outlined.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Countries have committed, through the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), to pursue climate targets and policies that would limit global temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels. A shift toward green public investment will help to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In addition, substantial public investment will be necessary to build public infrastructure that makes economies more resilient to climate change and related natural disasters. Climate change mitigation and adaptation challenges thus compound preexisting needs for public investment to foster the economic recovery from the pandemic and to meet the SDGs in a broader range of areas, often in a context of limited fiscal space. Against this backdrop, a priority for all countries is to manage their public investment efficiently and effectively. To help countries improve the institutions and processes for infrastructure governance (the planning, allocation, and implementation of public investment), the IMF developed in 2015 the Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA), which has already been applied in over 70 countries. However, the current PIMA does not provide a sufficiently tailored assessment of how public investment management can support climate change mitigation and adaptation. To fill this gap, this paper introduces a new module to the to the current Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) framework, the “Climate-PIMA” (C-PIMA), whose goal is to help governments identify potential improvements in public investment institutions and processes to build low-carbon and climate-resilient infrastructure.
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Modern Fund surveillance needs to be more targeted, topical and timely, better interconnected and better informed. Modernizing surveillance will likely require additional resources, although estimates are highly uncertain at this stage. The paper offers a tentative costing of new proposals with significant budgetary implications. Other proposals could rely on optimizing processes, while others are underway and funded separately; the resource implications of yet others are being picked up in context of other workstreams. Estimates do not include short-term transition costs or pressures on support services and are subject to a significant degree of uncertainty. A flexible approach to implementing the new modalities, characterized by experimentation and learning-by- doing—a “sandbox” for new modalities—is proposed.
Luc Eyraud, Ms. Changchang Zhang, Mr. Abdoul A Wane, and Mr. Benedict J. Clements
This paper fills a gap in the macroeconomic literature on renewable sources of energy. It offers a definition of green investment and analyzes the trends and determinants of this investment over the last decade for 35 advanced and emerging countries. We use a new multi-country historical dataset and find that green investment has become a key driver of the energy sector and that its rapid growth is now mostly driven by China. Our econometric results suggest that green investment is boosted by economic growth, a sound financial system conducive to low interest rates, and high fuel prices. We also find that some policy interventions, such as the introduction of carbon pricing schemes, or "feed-in-tariffs," which require use of "green" energy, have a positive and significant impact on green investment. Other interventions, such as biofuel support, do not appear to be associated with higher green investment.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Australia discusses that a continued gradual economic recovery is expected, subject to downside risks. Growth should continue to recover in 2020, but it will take time for the economy to return to potential and restore inflation to within the target range. Despite sound macroeconomic fundamentals and policy management, growth remains below potential and inflation is slightly below its target range. Growth is projected to recover gradually in the near term, supported by monetary policy easing, tax cuts, and the recovery of housing markets. Nonetheless, inflation is forecast to remain slightly below the target range until 2021 due to persistent economic slack. Downside risks, including a renewed escalation of the China–US tensions and weaker private consumption, remain elevated and have increased recently due to the widespread bushfires and the coronavirus outbreak. On the upside, looser financial conditions could re-accelerate asset-price inflation, boosting private consumption but also adding to medium-term vulnerabilities.
Gareth Anderson, Ling Zhu, Mr. Tokhir N Mirzoev, Karlygash Zhunussova, and Jiayi Ma
Nearly all countries in the Middle East and Central Asia have pledged to contain greenhouse gas emissions as part of the Paris Agreement. The purpose of this paper is to identify the menu of fiscal policy options which would allow the region to fulfil its missions reduction commitment. Specifically, the paper examines and estimates the tradeoff between two broad categories of fiscal policies: public investments in renewable sources of energy and measures that raise the effective price of fossil fuels. Such a dichotomy captures the key medium-term macroeconomic and long-term intergenerational trade-offs that are arguably the most pertinent for the countries in the Middle East and Central Asia where governments are likely to play a leading role in the low-carbon transition. At one end of this tradeoff, a gradual removal of all fuel subsidies and, in addition, a phased introduction of a carbon tax of $8 per metric-ton of CO2-equivalent in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) and $4 in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) over the next eight years could achieve the region’s 2030 emissions abatement goals without additional investments in renewables. T Alternatively, additional combined public investments of close to US$900 billion in renewable sources of energy between 2023 and 2030 would allow achieving the region’s emissions reduction targets with fuel subsidies reduced by two thirds and without any carbon tax. In practice, most countries are likely to choose a mix of these policies based on their individual circumstances. Importantly, the deployment of non-fiscal mitigation policies—such as tightening of environmental regulations, such as raising emissions standards, or incentivizing green private investments—could play an important role in reducing the required fiscal effort and improving the tradeoff described above. Global and regional initiatives to provide affordable financial support and technological assistance would be equally important in improving the region’s economic options. Regardless of the chosen strategy, delaying the rollout of mitigation policies would make achieving the emissions reduction targets more difficult and costly. Therefore, an early start will be essential to tread a smoother path toward a low-carbon future in the Middle East and Central Asia.