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Mr. Simon Black, Ian Parry, Mr. James Roaf, and Karlygash Zhunussova
Achieving the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals requires cutting global CO2 emissions 25 to 50 percent this decade, followed by a rapid transition to net zero emissions. The world is currently not yet on track so there is an urgent need to narrow gaps in climate mitigation ambition and policy. Current mitigation pledges for 2030 would achieve just one to two thirds of the emissions reductions needed for limiting warming to 1.5 to 2oC. And additional measures equivalent to a global carbon price exceeding $75 per ton by 2030 are needed. This IMF Staff Climate Note presents extensive quantitative analyses to inform dialogue on closing mitigation ambition and policy gaps. It shows purely illustrative pathways to achieve the needed global emissions reductions while respecting international equity. The Note also presents country-level analyses of the emissions, fiscal, economic, and distributional impacts of carbon pricing and the trade-offs with other instruments—comprehensive mitigation strategies will be key.
Ian Parry and Karlygash Zhunussova

Zhunussova. 2021. “Not Yet on Track to Net Zero: The Urgent Need for Greater Ambition and Policy Action to Achieve Paris Temperature Goals.” IMF Staff Climate Note 2021/005, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. ISBN: 978–1-55775–440-0 (Paper) 978–1-55775–483-7 (ePub) 978–1-55775–453-0 (PDF) JEL Classification Numbers: Q31; Q35; Q38; Q48; H23 Keywords: Climate change mitigation, Paris Agreement, ambition gap, policy gap, mitigation pledges, abatement costs, carbon pricing, feebates. Authors’ email addresses: sblack

Ian Parry and Karlygash Zhunussova

-level policy gaps. A final section offers concluding remarks. Closing the Global Mitigation Ambition Gap Globally, emissions are highly concentrated in a handful of major economies, with both emissions and ambition levels varying strongly across countries ( Figure 3 ) . In general, AEs have aggressive emissions reduction pledges. Large EMDE-Hs and EMDE-Ls have smaller—or in some cases nonbinding—pledges in their current NDCs. Some fast-growing EMDE-H countries are on track to match or exceed per capita emissions of some AEs by 2030, while most EMDE-Ls will still have

Ian Parry and Karlygash Zhunussova

Agreement committed to update their NDCs with enhanced ambition ahead of COP26 in November 2021. 4 Note for the remainder of the analysis it is assumed that 2030 targets above IMF baseline levels are nonbinding, i.e. countries do not grow their emissions above baseline to those levels. If this assumption is violated it would significantly reduce ambition in current NDCs to about 9 percent below BAU in 2030. 5 UNFCCC (2021) estimates similar global ambition gaps. 6 Current conditional and unconditional pledges would cut 2030 emissions 21 and 19