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Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia, Lu Han, Miss Marie S Kim, and Ms. Nicole Laframboise
This paper studies the role of airlift supply on the tourism sector in the Caribbean. The paper examines the relative importance of U.S.-Caribbean airlift supply factors such as the number of flights, seats, airlines, and departure cities on U.S. tourist arrivals. The possible endogeneity problem between airlift supply and tourist arrivals is addressed by using a structural panel VAR and individual country VARs. Among the four airlift supply measures, increasing the number of flights is found to be the most effective way to boost tourist arrivals on a sustained basis. As a case study, the possible crowding effect of increasing the number of U.S. flights to Cuba is investigated and, based on past observations, we find no significant impact on flights to other Caribbean countries. The impact of natural disasters on airlift supply and tourist arrivals is also quantified.
Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia, Lu Han, Miss Marie S Kim, and Ms. Nicole Laframboise

investigate the dynamics between tourist arrivals and airlift supply factors. The airlift supply data used includes number of flights, number of passengers, size of airplane, number of airlines, and associated U.S. departure cities with nonstop flights to the Caribbean. To our knowledge, there has been no study examining the impact of various airlift supply factors on tourism flows. The availability of high frequency data enables us to use a structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR) to disentangle the causality between airlift supply factors and tourism flows