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Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Mr. Luca A Ricci, Alejandro Mariano Werner, and Rene Zamarripa

1 and 2 over the period 1990–2024 and using the US as an example 1 . Figure 1. Sample: US Growth Forecasts, Outcomes, and Revisions Source: WEO datbase and authors’ calculations Figure 2. Sample: US Growth Revisions (and Outcomes) Source: WEO datbase and authors’ calculations Figure 1 focuses only o n the Fall forecasts over the period 1990–2024 to provide a clean illustration of the adjustment in growth forecasts across vintages 2 . The solid black line represents the actual outcomes measures in year t+1 , while the grey line

Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Mr. Luca A Ricci, Alejandro Mariano Werner, and Rene Zamarripa
This paper investigates the performance of the IMF WEO growth forecast revisions across different horizons and country groups. We find that: (i) growth revisions in horizons closer to the actual are generally larger, more volatile, and more negative; (ii) on average, growth revisions are in the right direction, becoming progressively more responsive to the forecast error gap as horizons get closer to the actual year; (iii) growth revisions in systemic economies are relevant for growth revisions in all country groups; (iv) WEO and Consensus Forecast growth revisions are highly correlated; (v) fall-to-spring WEO revisions are more correlated with Consensus Forecasts revisions compared to spring-to-fall revisions; and (vi) across vintages, revisions for a given time horizon are not autocorrelated; within vintages, revisions tend to be positively correlated, suggesting perception of persistent short-term shocks.