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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

’s Imports B. Exchange Rate Assessment Based on four methodologies which give a qualitatively similar assessment, the REER appears to be broadly in line with fundamentals ( Figure 3 ) . Figure 3. WAEMU: Exchange Rate Assessment 3. To assess the stance of the current account for the WAEMU as a whole, this note re-estimates the “EBA-lite” 2 regression to include WAEMU aggregates ( Figure 3 , chart 1 and 2). The regression estimates are very similar to the original approach by Chen (2014) . The fitted values resulting from this exercise capture the

Ms. Aleksandra Zdzienicka

WAEMU Aggregate 1 (1980–2012) 1980s 1990s 2000s Since 2007 Benin 0.37 0.12 0.47 −0.11 Burkina Faso 0.76 0.57 0.71 0.44 Guinea-Bissau 0.35 −0.13 0.26 0.03 Côte d’lvoire 0.63 0.03 0.30 0.15 Mail 0.36 0.63 0.90 0.43 Niger 0.34 0.11 0.56 0.41 Senegal 0.12 0.14 0.39 0.05 Togo 0.22 −0.80 −0.03 0.17 Average 0.39 0.08 0.45 0.20 Source: IMF staff estimations. 1 Each country is taken out in the computation of

Ms. Christina Kolerus, Ms. Aleksandra Zdzienicka, Mr. Ermal Hitaj, and Mr. Douglas J Shapiro

. Estimating the Disciplining Effect of the Regional Debt Market Box 4. Various Approaches to Assess the Real Effective Exchange Rate Tables Table 1. WAEMU: Business Cycle Correlation with WAEMU Aggregate (1980–2012) Table 2. WAEMU: Business Cycle Correlation with the Euro Zone and China (1990–2012) Table 3. WAEMU: Channels of Output Smoothing Table 4. Mali: Trade Flows Table 5. Mali: Domestic Debt Service Due in 2013 Table 6. WAEMU: Treasury Bills Issuance Table 7. Determinants of Interest Rates in the WAEMU Table 8. WAEMU First-Order Convergence

Ms. Christina Kolerus, Ms. Aleksandra Zdzienicka, Mr. Ermal Hitaj, and Mr. Douglas J Shapiro
The West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), like other monetary unions, faces a number of challenges in dealing with macroeconomic shocks. The region experiences a large number of exogenous shocks: climate-related (e.g., droughts, floods), with a heavy toll on populations and agriculture, but also economic (e.g., terms of trade), with a large impact on key sectors and the cost of living. More generally business cycle synchronization within the WAEMU seems low. Addressing these shocks, while preserving the stability of the union, is therefore a critical issue in the WAEMU.This paper discusses these issues and suggests possible reforms.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Uganda. For the purpose of this study, we will refer to these eight fast-growing countries as “high-growth non-oil exporters” or “high-growth countries.” While Burkina Faso’s growth performance was similar to that of the slowest growing high-growth country, Burkina Faso will only be included in the WAEMU aggregate. Table 1. Selected Indicators, 1995–2009 Real GDP per Capita Growth Real GDP Growth Natural Resources Landlocked Population, 2009 GDP, 2009 GDP per Capita, 2009 1 (Average, percent) (Millions) (Billions of U

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

value was projected to decline steadily from 3.8 percent of GDP in 2015 to 2.8 percent of GDP by 2019. In the event, the aggregate fiscal deficit increased to 4.4 percent of GDP in 2016. It remained close to this elevated level in 2017 and it is now projected to decline in 2018 back to its 2015 level. As a result, the extent of adjustment that will be required in 2019 to bring the aggregate fiscal deficit down to the 3 percent of GDP convergence criterion is much greater than was initially envisaged. Figure 1. WAEMU: Aggregate Overall Fiscal Deficit, 2015

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper reviews West African Economic and Monetary Union’s (WAEMU) regional macroeconomic surveillance framework to control all sources of debt accumulation and ensure debt sustainability. WAEMU’s regional surveillance framework aims at ensuring the sustainability of national fiscal policies and their consistency with the common monetary policy. While fiscal deficits have been the main driver of public debt across WAEMU member countries, the size of residual factors has varied greatly among these countries. The WAEMU Macroeconomic Surveillance Framework would benefit from adjustments to more effectively set the region’s public debt on a sustainable path. In addition, beyond adhering to the WAEMU fiscal deficit rule, member countries must curb below-the-budget-line operations. This would require improved monitoring of fiscal risks and the building of adequate budget provisions to address such risks before they materialize. Improved Treasury practices would also help eliminate the recourse to pre-financing arrangements and tighten control over expenditure. Public dissemination of the WAEMU progress report and strengthened peer-to-peer learning among member countries could improve the momentum for reforms.
Mr. Ermal Hitaj, Ms. Christina Kolerus, Mr. Douglas J Shapiro, and Ms. Aleksandra Zdzienicka

years, possibly reflecting political instability in a number of countries (Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Mali). Business cycle correlation has tended to be higher in landlocked countries (Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger), which are more dependent on intra-WAEMU trade, and lower in countries with higher extrazone trade links (Benin, Senegal, Togo). Table 1 . WAEMU: Business Cycle Correlation with WAEMU Aggregate 1 (1980–2012) 1980s 1990s 2000s since 2007 Benin 0.37 0.12 0.47 −0.11 Burkina Faso 0.76 0.57 0.71 0

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

.5 EAC-5 21.8 28.6 31.6 31.1 31.2 31.4 4.4 5.5 4.8 4.4 4.0 4.0 ECOWAS 9.0 15.0 18.2 18.9 19.1 19.0 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.5 SACU 13.7 19.9 23.0 18.3 19.7 20.3 5.5 8.3 6.3 5.2 4.8 4.5 SADC 18.8 27.4 32.4 27.1 26.3 25.9 5.4 7.7 5.6 4.8 4.5 4.3 Sources: IMF, Common Surveillance database; and IMF, World Economic Outlook database, October 2022. 1 As a member of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), see WAEMU aggregate for

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

, World Economic Outlook database, October 2020. 1 As a member of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), see WAEMU aggregate for reserves data. 2 As a member of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC), see CEMAC aggregate for reserves data. 3 Fiscal year data. 4 In 2019 Zimbabwe authorities introduced the real-time gross settlement (RTGS) dollar, later renamed the Zimbabwe dollar, and are in the process of redenominating their national accounts statistics. Current data are subject to revision. The Zimbabwe