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Ms. Cemile Sancak, Jing Xing, and Ricardo Velloso

a 1¾ percent increase in VAT collections. The results reported in the paper are consistent for quarterly and annual data, and across advanced and developing economies. We also find that a worsening (improvement) in VAT C-efficiency is driven by shifts in consumption patterns toward goods and services with lower (higher) VAT rates, and increases (decreases) in tax evasion during contractions (expansions). Indeed, shifts in consumption patterns and tax evasion appear to be the main channels through which the output gap has an impact on VAT C-efficiency. A closer