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Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia, Mr. Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne, and Rafael Romeu
The Cuban revolution and the subsequent US embargo on Cuba helped shape the tourism sector in the Caribbean, facilitating the birth and growth of alternative destinations. Therefore, the apprehension of the Caribbean tourism industry towards a change in US travel policy to Cuba is understandable, but likely unwarranted. The history of tourism in the region has shown that it is possible for all destinations to grow despite large changes in market shares. Our estimations show that liberalizing US-Cuba tourism could result in US arrivals to Cuba of between 3 and 5.6 million, most of it coming from new tourists to the region. We also identify the destinations most at risk of changes in US-Cuba relations.
Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia, Mr. Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne, and Rafael Romeu

destination’s gain is another one’s loss, and hence an orderly and gradual US-Cuba opening up should not affect the vital airlift services on which all Caribbean destinations depend for their tourism exports. This paper follows the work of Romeu ( 2014 , and 2008 ) to estimate the potential impact on tourism flows in the Caribbean following a full liberalization of travel between the US and Cuba. In these papers, a gravity trade model is used to analyze Caribbean tourism, with results indicating that opening US-Cuba tourism will result in an increase in US tourists to

Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia, Mr. Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne, and Rafael Romeu

Front Matter Page Western Hemisphere Department Table of Contents ABSTRACT I. INTRODUCTION II. STYLIZED FACTS AND LONG TERM TRENDS IN CARIBBEAN’S TOURISM III. THE DATA AND THE GRAVITY MODEL OF TOURISM A. The Gravity Model B. The Data IV. MEASURING THE IMPACT OF US-CUBA TOURISM ON THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN A. Estimating US-Cuba tourism flows V. CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS VI. REFERENCES VII. APPENDIX FIGURES Caribbean Tourist Arrivals, 1995–2014 Evolution of the Caribbean Tourism Market, 1995–2014 Canadian

Mr. Krishna Srinivasan, Ms. Inci Ötker, Ms. Uma Ramakrishnan, and Mr. Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne

2,431 9,103 Puerto Rico 1.46 134,184 1,693 3,720 10,843 150,440 Source: Caribbean Tourism Organization and author’s calculations. References Acevedo , Sebastian , Trevor Alleyne , and Rafael Romeu . 2017 . “ Revisiting the Potential Impact to the Rest of the Caribbean from Opening US-Cuba Tourism .” IMF Working Paper 17/100 , International Monetary Fund , Washington, DC . Acevedo , Sebastian , Lu Han , Marie Kim , and Nicole LaFramboise . 2016 . “ Flying to Paradise: The Role of Airlift in

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Cuevas, Izabela Karpowicz, Carlos Mulas-Granados, Mauricio Soto Working Paper 17/100 Revisiting the Potential Impact to the Rest of the Caribbean from Opening US-Cuba Tourism Sebastian Acevedo Mejia, Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne, Rafael Romeu Working Paper 17/101 Central Bank Legal Frameworks in the Aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis Ashraf Khan Working Paper 17/102 Macroprudential Liquidity Stress Testing in FSAPs for Systemically Important Financial Systems Andreas A. Jobst, Li Lian Ong, Christian Schmieder

Vybhavi Balasundharam and Mr. Robin Koepke

to some of the estimates in the literature, including the estimates presented here, to predict the pace of recovery and study the impact of different policy measures. References Acevedo , M. S. , Trevor S. , and Coleridge A , 2017 , “ Revisiting the Potential Impact to the Rest of the Caribbean from Opening US-Cuba Tourism ,” IMF Working Paper 17/100 ( Washington : International Monetary Fund ). Arslanalp , S. , R. Koepke and J. Verschuur , 2021 , “ Tracking Trade from Space: An Application to Pacific Island Countries

Vybhavi Balasundharam and Mr. Robin Koepke
The COVID-19 pandemic prompted a collapse in international tourism, severely impacting the tourism-dependent economies in the Asia & Pacific region. Once countries start reopening, tourism diversion effects could accelerate the recovery in countries that establish themselves as more attractive travel destinations than competitors. We investigate the impact of previous shocks in tourism competitor countries on visitor inflows, with a particular focus on tourism-dependent Pacific Island Countries (PICs). We find that PICs were generally resilient to external shocks and benefitted from diversion effects for certain types of shocks. For example, the share of departures from Australia to PICs increased by 12 percent during the SARS outbreak. We then derive policy implications for the post-COVID-19 revival of inbound tourism to PICs and lessons for the future.
Mr. Manuk Ghazanchyan, Li Zhao, Steve Brito, and Vivian Parlak

Paper WP/14/125 . Acevedo , S. , Han , L. , Kim , M. , and N. Laframboise , 2016 , “ Flying to Paradise: The Role of Airlift in the Caribbean Tourism Industry ,” IMF Working Paper WP/16/33 . Acevedo , S. , Alleyne , T. , and Romeu , R. , 2017 , “ Revisiting the Potential Impact to the Rest of the Caribbean from Opening US-Cuba Tourism ”, IMF Working paper WP/17/100 . Acevedo , S. , and Walker , C. , 2013 , “ The Eastern Caribbean Economic and Currency Union, Macroeconomics and Financial Systems ”, edited by Schipke , A

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
The Summer 2017 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin highlights new research such as recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes. The Research Summaries are “Structural Reform Packages, Sequencing, and the Informal Economy (by Zsuzsa Munkacsi and Magnus Saxegaard) and “A Broken Social Contract, Not High Inequality Led to the Arab Spring” (by Shantayanan Devarajan and Elena Ianchovichina). The Q&A section features “Seven Questions on Fintech” (by Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli). The Bulletin also includes information on recommended titles from IMF Publications and the latest articles from the IMF Economic Review.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Acevedo , S. , Alleyne , T. , and Romeu , R. , 2017 , “ Revisiting the Potential Impact to the Rest of the Caribbean from Opening US-Cuba Tourism ”, IMF Working paper WP/17/100 . Acevedo , S. , Han , L. , Kim , M. , and N. Laframboise , 2016 , “ Flying to Paradise: The Role of Airlift in the Caribbean Tourism Industry ,” IMF Working Paper WP/16/33. Centre d’Etudes Prospectives et d’Informations Internationales (CEPII) , 2015 , GeoDist Database , available at: http://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/welcome.asp IMF , 2018 , “ Cheap