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Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia, Mr. Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne, and Rafael Romeu
The Cuban revolution and the subsequent US embargo on Cuba helped shape the tourism sector in the Caribbean, facilitating the birth and growth of alternative destinations. Therefore, the apprehension of the Caribbean tourism industry towards a change in US travel policy to Cuba is understandable, but likely unwarranted. The history of tourism in the region has shown that it is possible for all destinations to grow despite large changes in market shares. Our estimations show that liberalizing US-Cuba tourism could result in US arrivals to Cuba of between 3 and 5.6 million, most of it coming from new tourists to the region. We also identify the destinations most at risk of changes in US-Cuba relations.
Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia, Mr. Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne, and Rafael Romeu

-linear effect to distance, given that the coefficient for Europe, while negative, is not statistically significant. Both the US-Cuba restrictions and the tightening of those restrictions are negative and significant, confirming that the US travel policy towards Cuba has had an important negative impact on the tourism sector in the island. Table 1. Gravity Estimations Variables (1) In TA (2) In TA (3) In TA Distance −1.48*** −1.55*** −1.56*** US-Cuba restrictions −3.41*** −3.61*** −3.59*** Tightening of restrictions