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Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia, Mr. Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne, and Rafael Romeu

; however, by 1980 Cuba had less than 3 percent of the market compared to the same set of countries. 2 In the case of The Bahamas despite a long history of tourism promotion that started with the Tourism Encouragement Act of 1851, it was the US embargo on Cuba that provided “the main stimulus to the tourism industry” with much of the US tourists switching to The Bahamas ( The Bahamas Ministry of Tourism, 2016 ). Tourist arrivals to The Bahamas went from 142,689 in 1954 to over a million in 1968. It is also not surprising that in 1967 the Mexican government recognizing

Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia, Mr. Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne, and Rafael Romeu
The Cuban revolution and the subsequent US embargo on Cuba helped shape the tourism sector in the Caribbean, facilitating the birth and growth of alternative destinations. Therefore, the apprehension of the Caribbean tourism industry towards a change in US travel policy to Cuba is understandable, but likely unwarranted. The history of tourism in the region has shown that it is possible for all destinations to grow despite large changes in market shares. Our estimations show that liberalizing US-Cuba tourism could result in US arrivals to Cuba of between 3 and 5.6 million, most of it coming from new tourists to the region. We also identify the destinations most at risk of changes in US-Cuba relations.
International Monetary Fund

roughly 64 percent of tourists. This is followed by Venezuela (16 percent), Colombia and the Netherlands (each roughly 4 percent). Particularly noteworthy was the 70 percent surge in the number of cruise ship passenger arrivals. More large ships included Aruba in their itinerary, partly because it lies outside the hurricane belt. A positive recent development is that Aruba has been able to increase the number of flights from all major US carriers to Aruba. This has partly allowed it to increase the number of US tourists, while tourists from Europe and South America

Rafael Romeu

tourists to Cuba are assumed new to the region, and all countries redistribute existing non-US tourists in Cuba to other destinations ba At the other extreme, all US tourists redirect to Cuba from other destinations, and these destinations lose US tourists based on existing shares of total US arrivals Model 1, the first estimation assuming a free trade regime and scale effects for countries projected receiving 40 percent European arrivals. Model 2, includes Cut market power, and scale effects for countries projected receiving 40 percent European arrivals. Model 3, fits

Rafael Romeu
An opening of Cuba to U.S. tourism would represent a seismic shift in the Caribbean's tourism industry. This study models the impact of such a potential opening by estimating a counterfactual that captures the current bilateral restriction on tourism between the two countries. After controlling for natural disasters, trade agreements, and other factors, the results show that a hypothetical liberalization of Cuba-U.S. tourism would increase long-term regional arrivals. Neighboring destinations would lose the implicit protection the current restriction affords them, and Cuba would gain market share, but this would be partially offset in the short-run by the redistribution of non-U.S. tourists currently in Cuba. The results also suggest that Caribbean countries have in general not lowered their dependency on U.S. tourists, leaving them vulnerable to this potential change.
Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia, Lu Han, Miss Marie S Kim, and Ms. Nicole Laframboise

,t Cities ɛ i,t Flights ɛ i,t Seats ɛ i,t US   Tourists ) = [ a 11 0 0 0 0 a 21 a 22 0 0 0 a 31 a 32 a 33 0 0 a 41 a 42 a 43 a 44

International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

large share of US tourists which accounted for 70 percent of stay-over tourist arrivals in 2018. In addition, price competitiveness proxied by the REER—although the statistical significance of its coefficient is marginal— remains economically meaningful. A 1 percent reduction in price competitiveness (a 1 percent appreciation of the REER) is associated with “Arrivals” declining by 0.2 percentage points. Composition of Stay-Over Tourist Arrival (In Percent Total) Source: Belize Tourism Board 17. Gaps exist in some of these metrics, relative to the

Mr. Julian T Chow

.4 percent. For Belize, the model estimates imply that about 40 percent of the rise in tourist arrivals in 2018 are explained by US growth. 8 This reflects the large share of US tourists which accounted for 70 percent of stay-over tourist arrivals in 2018. In addition, price competitiveness proxied by the REER—although the statistical significance of its coefficient is marginal—remains economically meaningful. A 1 percent reduction in price competitiveness (a 1 percent appreciation of the REER) is associated with “Arrivals” declining by 0.2 percentage points

Mr. Julian T Chow
Belize’s tourism sector has witnessed impressive growth in recent years with overnight tourist arrivals registering double digit annual growth rates since 2016. To guide the development of the tourism sector from 2012 to 2030, the government endorsed a National Sustainable Tourism Master Plan in 2011, setting various initiatives and targets for the immediate and medium terms. Using a panel regression analysis on twelve Caribbean countries, this paper finds that accelerating structural reforms, fortifying governance frameworks, reducing crime, and mitigating the impact of natural disasters will help sustain tourism growth in Belize and contribute to economic well-being. This is in addition to tackling infrastructure bottlenecks and mitigating concerns relating to the “shared economy”.