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Rafael Romeu

response to EU preference erosion for banana and sugar exports from their former Caribbean colonies. 4 On the issue of the supply shock that would result from a hypothetical opening of U.S. tourist flows to Cuba, concerns are beginning to arise over the need to brace for such competitive pressures. 5 For example, the very high costs of visiting Cuba compared with the perfect trade integration of the U.S. Virgin Islands, suggests that the current restriction provides substantial trade protection to the latter. The rest of the Caribbean lies somewhere in between these

Rafael Romeu
An opening of Cuba to U.S. tourism would represent a seismic shift in the Caribbean's tourism industry. This study models the impact of such a potential opening by estimating a counterfactual that captures the current bilateral restriction on tourism between the two countries. After controlling for natural disasters, trade agreements, and other factors, the results show that a hypothetical liberalization of Cuba-U.S. tourism would increase long-term regional arrivals. Neighboring destinations would lose the implicit protection the current restriction affords them, and Cuba would gain market share, but this would be partially offset in the short-run by the redistribution of non-U.S. tourists currently in Cuba. The results also suggest that Caribbean countries have in general not lowered their dependency on U.S. tourists, leaving them vulnerable to this potential change.
Rafael Romeu

and Culture 9. Cost Comparison Across Caribbean 10. Market Concentration Based on Hotel Rooms, 1996–2004 11. Airlines Owned by OECD and Caribbean Countries 12. Modeling of Tourist from the USA 13. Modeling of Tourist Arrivals to Cuba 14. Hotel Capacity Utilization 15. Before and After Assuming U.S. Tourists New to Caribbean 16. Pie Chart of Visitor Distribution Assuming All New U.S. Tourists 17. Before and After Assuming No New U.S. Tourists 18. Pie Chart of Visitor Distribution Assuming No New U.S. Tourists 19. Map Assuming U.S. Arrivals

Mr. Krishna Srinivasan, Ms. Inci Ötker, Ms. Uma Ramakrishnan, and Mr. Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne

tourism promotion that started with the Tourism Encouragement Act of 1851—it was the U.S. embargo on Cuba that provided “the main stimulus to the tourism industry,” with U.S. tourists switching to The Bahamas ( The Bahamas Ministry of Tourism 2016 ). Tourist arrivals to The Bahamas grew from about 150,000 in 1954 to more than a million in 1968. Mexico also followed suit with the directed development of Cancun as a tourism destination. Just as the closing of U.S.-Cuba relations was a boon to other Caribbean tourism destinations, could the normalization of U

Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia, Lu Han, Miss Marie S Kim, and Ms. Nicole Laframboise
This paper studies the role of airlift supply on the tourism sector in the Caribbean. The paper examines the relative importance of U.S.-Caribbean airlift supply factors such as the number of flights, seats, airlines, and departure cities on U.S. tourist arrivals. The possible endogeneity problem between airlift supply and tourist arrivals is addressed by using a structural panel VAR and individual country VARs. Among the four airlift supply measures, increasing the number of flights is found to be the most effective way to boost tourist arrivals on a sustained basis. As a case study, the possible crowding effect of increasing the number of U.S. flights to Cuba is investigated and, based on past observations, we find no significant impact on flights to other Caribbean countries. The impact of natural disasters on airlift supply and tourist arrivals is also quantified.
Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia, Lu Han, Miss Marie S Kim, and Ms. Nicole Laframboise

airlines, which would keep ticket prices competitive. Tourists, on the other hand, might place greater value on having nonstop flights to their destination. Alternatively, a minister of tourism in the Caribbean might be more interested in sheer volume, i.e., frequency of flights and number of seats. Or one could simply conclude that all factors are equally important. This paper seeks to determine the relative importance of different airlift supply factors for U.S tourist arrivals to the Caribbean, namely the number of flights, seats, airlines, and departure cities with

Ms. Nicole Laframboise

for cash (since 2000). And after the United States eased the travel ban on its citizens traveling to Cuba (for specific purposes) in 2012, the number of U.S. tourists headed there rose by 33 percent almost immediately, to about 98,000. But that number probably pales in comparison with the number if travel restrictions were ended. Can Cuba absorb a sudden surge in tourists? The country has a complex system of parallel currencies—the peso for Cubans, a convertible peso for tourists, and multiple other exchange rates. This alone renders international comparisons