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Rafael Romeu

across all destinations and visitor countries. Previous work has not reached a consensus on the impact of a hypothetical liberalization of Cuba-U.S. tourism on the Caribbean. In particular, previous work forecasting tourism without the current restrictions draws on potentially unreliable data or on untested assumptions. For example, Padilla and McElroy (2003) project arrivals based on a comprehensive historical review, including evidence from the 1950s and industry surveys. These projections appear plausible, but they are not tested econometrically and the

Rafael Romeu
An opening of Cuba to U.S. tourism would represent a seismic shift in the Caribbean's tourism industry. This study models the impact of such a potential opening by estimating a counterfactual that captures the current bilateral restriction on tourism between the two countries. After controlling for natural disasters, trade agreements, and other factors, the results show that a hypothetical liberalization of Cuba-U.S. tourism would increase long-term regional arrivals. Neighboring destinations would lose the implicit protection the current restriction affords them, and Cuba would gain market share, but this would be partially offset in the short-run by the redistribution of non-U.S. tourists currently in Cuba. The results also suggest that Caribbean countries have in general not lowered their dependency on U.S. tourists, leaving them vulnerable to this potential change.
Rafael Romeu

. tourism to Cuba 8. Alternative Estimates of U.S.-Cuba Unrestricted Tourism in the Caribbean 9. Model 1: Projected Arrivals from Gravity Estimates 10. Model 3: Long-term Gravity Estimation with Industry Costs Figures 1. OECD Tourist Arrivals 2. Cuba-U.S. Tourism Distortions 3. Evolution of Cuba in Caribbean Tourism 4. Distribution of Tourist within Destinations 5. Top Five Clients of Caribbean Destinations, 1995–2004 6. Top Five Destinations of OECD Visitors, 1995–2004 7. Clustering by Tourism Preferences 1995-2004 8. Clustering by Fundamentals

Mr. Krishna Srinivasan, Ms. Inci Ötker, Ms. Uma Ramakrishnan, and Mr. Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne

Introduction The growth of Caribbean tourism other than to Cuba is partly a post–Cuban revolution phenomenon. After the Cuban revolution in 1959, U.S. travel restrictions in 1963 closed U.S. tourism to one of the preferred Caribbean destinations of U.S. travelers. In 1953, the last year of tourism statistics in Cuba before the revolution, 1 Cuba received almost half of all tourist arrivals to the Caribbean; by 1980 Cuba had less than 3 percent of the market compared with the same set of countries. 2 For example, in The Bahamas—despite a long history of

Ms. Nicole Laframboise

. Not zero sum Lifting restrictions would raise the purchasing power of U.S. consumers in the short term. In this sense, Romeu’s original model found that opening Cuba to U.S. travelers would increase the total number of tourists visiting the Caribbean by between 4 and 10 percent ( Romeu, 2008 ). So policymakers in other Caribbean islands need not despair. Growth in U.S. tourism to Cuba will not necessarily mean an equivalent reduction in visitors to other points in the Caribbean. In other words, it need not be a zero sum game. Moreover, there are a large number of

International Monetary Fund

should aim at bringing the debt-to-GDP ratio back to the 32–34 percent range registered before the slowdown . Reducing the deficit to about 1 percent of GDP over a period of three years would lower the debt ratio to 34 percent of GDP by 2008. The lower debt burden would allow the authorities to undertake countercyclical policies to mitigate the impact of adverse shocks. This is important because the small size of the Bahamian economy, and its high dependency on U.S. tourism demand, makes it highly vulnerable to unexpected shocks. 33. Tax reform is necessary to

International Monetary Fund

fuelled demand for retirement and vacation homes in the Antilles. 2 U.S. tourism, predominantly time-shares in St. Maarten, is less sensitive to economic fluctuations than hotel-or cruise-based tourism. Most Curaçao tourists are Europeans. 3 IMF Country Report No. 04/271. 4 Initial proposals envisage cutting personal and corporate income tax rates by some 5–8 percent and 8–10 percent respectively, and increasing the turnover tax from 5 to 12 percent. 5 Tax revenues could be further bolstered after the eventual privatization of the state-owned oil

International Monetary Fund
The Bahamas showed strong performance owing to its prudent macroeconomic management. Executive Directors welcomed this step, and emphasized the need to strengthen fiscal and international reserve positions, and diversify the economic base to maintain confidence and reduce economic vulnerabilities. They stressed the need to accelerate structural reforms, improve financial supervision and regulation, and to bring the regimes for combating money laundering and terrorism financing. They appreciated The Bahamas's participation in the General Data Dissemination System, and encouraged action to remove inconsistencies that exist in the economic data.
International Monetary Fund
This 2009 Article IV Consultation highlights that the U.S. economy has experienced the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. In the second half of 2008, financial pressures intensified and came to a head with the failure of Lehman Brothers in September. Executive Directors have commended the authorities’ forceful and internationally coordinated actions to stabilize and repair the financial sector. As a result of their increasingly strong and comprehensive policy measures, the sharp fall in economic output seems to be ending, and confidence in financial stability has strengthened.
International Monetary Fund

attack on the United States on September 11, 2001. The islands increased their market share in the U.S. tourism market. An improved competitive position in the European market due to the appreciation of the euro further boosted tourism growth. Large Dutch transfers of dividend taxes from the international financial sector and private transfers from households abroad also contained the current account deficit. 15. Current account deficits were in recent years largely financed by foreign borrowing, rather than by reserve depletion . Data on the outstanding stock of