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behalf of our Trinidad and Tobago authorities, we thank staff for the comprehensive report and the productive engagement during the Article IV consultation. Our authorities welcome the opportunity provided by this policy dialogue and value staffs assessment and recommendations. Mitigating the shock and preparing for the recovery Prior to the start of the pandemic, Trinidad and Tobago had begun to show signs of recovery after several years of underwhelming performance . The impact of the pandemic was coupled with a sharp decline in international energy
.7 33.6 35.5 41.2 Gross official reserves (in US$ million) 2,499 3,871 5,120 6,642 8,743 Terms of trade (percentage change) 6.4 12.3 3.8 0.1 8.6 Memorandum item : Nominal GDP (in billions of TT$) 82.8 101.0 122.3 136.7 155.4 Sources: Trinidad and Tobago authorities; and Fund staff estimates. 1/ Changes in percent beginning-of-period broad money. 2/ Fiscal year October–September. Data refer to fiscal years from 2003/2004 and 2007/2008. 3/ Defined as non-energy revenue minus
.4 … … Source: Trinidad and Tobago authorities; and Fund staff estimates. 1/ Changes in percent of beginning-of-period broad money. 2/ The data refer to fiscal year October-September. 3/ Defined as non-energy revenue minus expenditure of the central government. 4/ Excluding debt issued for sterilization. 1 Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials
Standard and Poor’s, and from Baa2 to Baa3 in the case of Moody’s. The Trinidad and Tobago authorities broadly share the staff’s assessment of the outlook for the economy and of the challenges that lie ahead. While prospects for growth appear bright over the medium term, the authorities are mindful of the growing risks to macroeconomic stability and longer-term sustainability as the economy approaches the limits of its capacity. With signs of an inflationary takeoff already present in the economy, the authorities view containment of this trend as a key short
trends are accelerating in 2005—the foreign assets of both the commercial banks and the central bank have continued to rise rapidly this year. Oil Price and Foreign Assets 1/ Sources: Trinidad and Tobago authorities; and Fund staff estimates. 1/ Banking system. Oil Price and Fiscal Balances Sources: Trinidad and Tobago authorities; and Fund staff estimates. 6. In recent years, the nonenergy fiscal deficit has widened substantially due to higher expenditures, although the overall balance remains in surplus . An already expansionary budget for
that it would consider divesting its holdings in the energy sector. In the financial sector, reforms focus on improving the effectiveness of open market operations, developing money and capital markets, and strengthening further the regulatory framework of the financial system. Washington, D.C. 20431 • Telephone 202-623-7100 • Fax 202-623-6772 • www.imf.org Executive Board Assessment Directors commended the Trinidad and Tobago authorities for their strong track record of economic performance in recent years, as evidenced by robust output growth, low
External public debt 20.5 18.5 17.5 14.9 11.3 Current account balance 6.6 5.0 0.8 8.9 14.5 Of which: exports 52.4 48.5 43.1 48.2 52.0 Of which: imports 40.6 40.4 40.5 36.2 39.7 Gross official reserves (millions of US$) 1,406 1,876 1,924 2,258 2,993 Terms of trade (percentage change, end of period) 20.7 −5.7 0.6 7.5 4.4 Memorandum item: Nominal GDP (in billions of TT$) 51.4 55.0 56.5 67.8 77.6 Sources: Trinidad and Tobago authorities; and