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Mr. Steven A. Symansky and Mr. Peter S. Heller

of aging on the Tigerssaving rate, the Tigers’ share in the combined savings of the two groups rises to almost half by 2025, and to at least 60 percent by 2050. Less adverse effects from aging would imply higher absolute savings by the Tiger economies and a correspondingly greater share, reaching 80 percent. The reasons for these developments should be obvious. First, the Tiger economies are assumed to grow more than twice as fast as the industrial countries. Thus, the already low saving industrial countries diminish in their importance for global savings

Mr. Steven A. Symansky and Mr. Peter S. Heller
Significant aging is projected for many high-saving emerging economies of East and Southeast Asia. By 2025, the share of the elderly in their populations will at least double in most of these countries. The share of the young will fall. Aging populations could adversely affect saving rates in these economies, particularly after 2025. For the world, one may observe that, initially, the Asian Tigers could become increasingly important for world savings, reflecting their increased weight in the world economy, their high saving and growth rates, and the aging of the industrial countries. After 2025, the aging of the Tigers may reinforce the tendency toward a declining world saving rate.
Mr. Peter S. Heller

absolute level of world savings and the aggregate global saving rate. The most optimistic estimates would suggest a halving in combined aggregate savings between 2025 and 2050. The Asian tigers’ share of these savings should rise over the period to about one-third by 2010 and more dramatically thereafter. Even with the most adverse assumptions on the impact of aging on the tigerssaving rate, the tigers’ share in the combined savings of the two groups is likely to rise to slightly more than half by 2025 and to almost three-fourths by 2050. Less adverse effects from

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

-region version of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF5). GIMF5 is an extended version of the Kumhof and Laxton model and includes separate models for the United States, euro area, Japan, emerging Asia, and “remaining countries.” See Kumhof and Laxton (2007) . Another way to understand changes in the current account balance is to look at developments in saving and investment ( Figures 6.3 and 6.4 ). 4 In emerging Asia, the 1997–98 crisis led to a drastic drop in (mostly) private investment in Korea and the Asian Tigers. Saving also declined

International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Since it began operations in 1946, the IMF has steadily evolved in response to changes in the world economy. What steps is it taking to meet the new challenges posed by the Asian crisis?