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Ms. Junko Koeda

) and the LIC-U.S. TFP ratio is ⅓. 19 The paper’s main conclusions are sensitive to the LIC’s steady-state output level relative to the cutoff. More details are discussed at the end of this section. Benchmark Economy Consider the benchmark economy with initial income (y 1 ) equal to 90 percent of the cutoff (or about 70 percent of steady-state output (y ss )) , and initial debt repayment obligation (X 1 ) equal to 90 percent of the cutoff (or 100 percent of y 1 ). Figures 1 and 2 summarize the results from the numerical solution. To better

Ehsan U. Choudhri and Ms. Dalia S Hakura
A large data set on trade in manufactured products is used to evaluate the performance of a model that combines both the Ricardian and Heckscher-Ohlin effects and incorporates monopolistic competition. The paper estimates a relation implied by the model to explain relative sectoral exports of major countries to a number of important markets, using 1970-90 data for nine manufacturing sectors. The relation fits the data well and variables suggested by both traditional and new trade models play an important role in explaining relative exports.
Ms. Nita Thacker, Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia, and Mr. Roberto Perrelli
After earlier success, growth performance in most Caribbean countries has been disappointing since the early 1990s. With slower growth, output has fallen behind that of relevant comparator countries. This paper analyzes the growth experience of the Caribbean countries from a cross country perspective. Three findings stand out. First, the slowdown in growth is explained more by a decline in productivity rather than a lack of investment. Second, tourism has been a significant contributor to higher growth (through both capital accumulation and productivity) and lower output volatility, and in many countries there is scope for further expansion of this sector. Third, the small size and the fact that most of these countries are islands have limited growth. Policies aimed at improving productivity, further development of the tourism sector, and regional integration could pay dividends in terms of higher growth in the region.
Ehsan U. Choudhri and Ms. Dalia S Hakura

now make use of (4) , (6) and (7) to restate the export relation (2) as X i j m / X i k m = ( F i j / F i k ) ( B i j m / B i k m ) − σ ( C i j / C i k ) − ( σ − 1 ) ( A i j / A i k ) σ − 1 . ( 8 ) In this relation, the Ricardian effects are represented by the TFP ratio, which is assumed to

Ms. Junko Koeda

cases with no participation constraint are discussed in Appendix A . 13 An extension of Cohen and Sachs (1986) can be seen in Borensztein and Ghosh (1989) . 14 This number (0.7796) is based on two additional assumptions. First, I introduce a TFP difference between the United States and LICs. A cursory glance at the TFP ratios of forty LICs relative to the United States between 1960 and 2000 shows that about one-fourth of LICs have TFP levels that are stable and are less than one-third of the U.S. level. I thus assume that the TFP ratio of LIC to the

International Monetary Fund

t + α Δk t + (1−α)Δh t to calculate the annual ontributions of physical ( K/L ) and human ( H ) capital per worker, and of total factor productivity (A) , to the observed growth in output per worker ( Y/L ). Table 3 summarizes the results from the exercise. Table 3 Egypt: Sources of Economic Growth, 1961–2004 Output per Contribution of: Investment ICOR 3/ Worker (percent change) Physical Capital Human Capital 1/ TFP Ratio 2/ (percent) 1961–2004 2.5 1.0 0.6 0.9 20.2 2.9 1961–1980 3

Ms. Junko Koeda
The paper presents a theoretical model to explain how debt overhang is generated in low-income countries and discusses its implications for debt relief. The paper indicates that the extent of debt overhang, and the effectiveness of debt relief, would depend on a recipient country's initial economic conditions and level of total factor productivity.
Mr. Gerard J Almekinders, Mr. Alex Mourmouras, Ms. Jianping Zhou, Satoshi Fukuda, and Yong Sarah Zhou
The establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) at end-2015 has brought into sharp focus the issue of financial and economic integration in the region. This paper takes stock of ASEAN’s financial integration and prospects. ASEAN integration could accelerate in the years ahead; it will likely be a safe, gradual process consistent with the “ASEAN way” of consensus decision-making. Properly phased and sequenced, closer financial integration has the potential to help increase real incomes and accelerate real convergence within ASEAN and narrow the region’s gap with advanced Asia. Realizing the promise of financial integration will require ASEAN countries to make long-term investments in financial infrastructure. Policymakers can draw on the experience of their more advanced peers and of other regions. Gradualism and safeguards should not be excuses for inaction or financial protectionism. Reliance on flexible policy frameworks and a strengthened and tested regional financial safety net should be part of the agenda. Closer engagement with the Fund could also help.
Mr. Gerard J Almekinders, Mr. Alex Mourmouras, Ms. Jianping Zhou, Satoshi Fukuda, and Yong Sarah Zhou
The establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) at end-2015 has brought into sharp focus the issue of financial and economic integration in the region. This paper takes stock of ASEAN’s financial integration and prospects. ASEAN integration could accelerate in the years ahead; it will likely be a safe, gradual process consistent with the “ASEAN way” of consensus decision-making. Properly phased and sequenced, closer financial integration has the potential to help increase real incomes and accelerate real convergence within ASEAN and narrow the region’s gap with advanced Asia. Realizing the promise of financial integration will require ASEAN countries to make long-term investments in financial infrastructure. Policymakers can draw on the experience of their more advanced peers and of other regions. Gradualism and safeguards should not be excuses for inaction or financial protectionism. Reliance on flexible policy frameworks and a strengthened and tested regional financial safety net should be part of the agenda. Closer engagement with the Fund could also help.