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Mr. Rodrigo Garcia-Verdu, Alexis Meyer-Cirkel, Akira Sasahara, and Hans Weisfeld

the dummy variables. It uses observations from LICs only. Robust standard errors, clustered at the country-level, are in parentheses. Temperatures are in degrees Celsius and rainfalls are in units of 100 mm per month. ***, **, and * indicate statistical significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% level, respectively. See the main text for data sources. Finally, columns (5) and (6) consider the initial agricultural TFP levels. Results in column (5) imply that there is no systematic difference in weather shocks across low TFP countries and high TFP countries within the

Mr. Alex Mourmouras and Mr. Peter Rangazas
This paper offers possible explanations for three generally observed facts about fiscal policy and development: (F1) The relative size of government increases as an economy develops, (F2) The rise in government and taxation are associated with rising or constant economic growth rates, and (F3) Today's developing countries have larger government sectors than did today's developed countries at similar stages of development. The explanations for these facts are based on the structural transformation from traditional (mostly agricultural) to modern (industrial and post-industrial) production, rising public infrastructure investment, and less representative governments in many of today's developing economies.
Mr. Alex Mourmouras and Mr. Peter Rangazas

country’s tax rates converge to those found on the historical path of the currentlydeveloped economies. The high-tax developing country starts with tax rates slightly above the 1990 tax rates of developed countries, and then tax rates rise dramatically over the course of development reaching a rate in excess of 50 percent after 5 periods (120 years). The consequence of the high-tax rates is made clear in Figure 7 . The growth of the modern sector grows fast in the low-TFP country, quickly converging to the historical growth path of labor shares in the modern sector

Mr. Bas B. Bakker, Mr. Manuk Ghazanchyan, Alex Ho, and Vibha Nanda
In the last few decades there has been little convergence of income levels in Latin America with those in the United States, in sharp contrast with both emerging Asia and emerging Europe. This paper argues that lack of convergence was not the result of low investment. Latin America is poorer because of lower human capital levels and lower TFP—not because of a lower capital-output ratio. Cross-country differences of TFP in turn are associated with differences in human capital, governance and business climate indicators. We demonstrate that once levels of human capital and governance are taken into account, there is strong conditional cross-country convergence. Poor countries with high levels of human capital, governance or business climate indicators converge rapidly. Poor countries without those attributes do not. We show that low investment is the result of low TFP and thus GDP growth—not the cause.
Mr. Bas B. Bakker, Mr. Manuk Ghazanchyan, Alex Ho, and Vibha Nanda

capital growth. Figure 4.7. The Role of Capital Deepening, TFP and Human Capital in GDP per Capita Growth Source: Penn World Tables 9.1. 5 TFP: the link with Institutions and Human Capital We next show that cross-country differences of TFP are associated with cross-country differences in human capital, governance and business climate indicators. Countries with high human capital, strong governance and favorable business climates have higher TFP; countries with low human capital, weak governance and poor business climates lower TFP. 5

Mr. Rodrigo Garcia-Verdu, Alexis Meyer-Cirkel, Akira Sasahara, and Hans Weisfeld
This paper estimates agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) in 162 countries between 1991 and 2015 and aims to understand sources of cross-country variations in agricultural TFP levels and its growth rates. Two factors affecting agricultural TFP are analyzed in detail – imported intermediate inputs and climate. We first show that these two factors are independently important in explaining agricultural TFP – imported inputs raise agricultural TFP; and higher temperatures and rainfall shortages impede TFP growth, particularly in low-income countries (LICs). We also provide a new evidence that, within LICs, those with a higher import component of intermediate inputs seem to be more shielded from the negative impacts of weather shocks.
Zuliu Hu and Mr. Mohsin S. Khan

(TFP) Country Period growth G-7 industrial countries a Canada 1960-89 0.5 France 1960-89 1.5 Germany 1960-89 l.6 Italy 1960-89 2.0 Japan 1960-89 2.0 United Kingdom 1960-89 1.3 United States 1960-89 0.4 Latin America b Brazil 1950-85 1.6 Chile 1940-85 0.8 Mexico 1940-85 1.2 Venezuela (manufacturing) 1950-70 2.6 East Asia c Hong Kong 1966-91 2.3 Indonesia 1979-96 0

International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

level, from the Penn World Tables. The main explanatory variable, noncontributors k , is a proxy for informality, measured as the fraction of the labor force that does not contribute to a retirement pension scheme. Self-employment as a percentage of total employment is used as an alternative measure of informality. The coefficient β 1 is expected to be negative and statistically significant, showing that a high prevalence of informal activities is associated with lower TFP. Country-specific characteristics ( Z k ) such the GDP level and population size are