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Yasmin Alem and Jacinta Bernadette Shirakawa
Based on internal data, this paper finds that the capacity development program of the IMF’s Statistics Department has prioritized technical assistance and training to fragile and conflict-affected states. These interventions have yielded only slightly weaker results in fragile states than in other states. However, capacity development is constantly needed to make up for the dissipation of progress resulting from insufficient resources that fragile and conflict-affected states allocate to the statistical function, inadequate inter-agency coordination, and the pervasive impact of shocks exogenous to the statistical system. Greater coordination with other capacity development providers and within the IMF can help partially overcome low absorptive capacity in fragile states. Statistical capacity development is more effective when it is tailored to countries’ level of fragility.
Yasmin Alem and Jacinta Bernadette Shirakawa

@imf.org , jshirakawa@imf.org Title Page WORKING PAPERS Building Statistical Capacity in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States Prepared by Stephanie Medina Cas, Yasmin Alem, and Jacinta Bernadette Shirakawa 1 Contents Glossary I. Introduction II. Statistical Characteristics of FCS III. Data Issues IV. CD Challenges V. CD Delivery to FCS VI. CD Delivery Through RCDCs and Thematic Trust Funds VII. Monitoring Targeted Results VIII. Determinants of STA CD Mission Delivery IX. FCS Case Studies: Strategic Policy Findings X. Lessons and

Yasmin Alem and Jacinta Bernadette Shirakawa

statistics (RSS). V. CD Delivery to FCS Between FY2016 and FY2019, and before the COVID-19 pandemic, STA CD missions to FCS rose by 30 percent, far outpacing growth in demand from non-FCS where CD missions rose by about 2 percent, even though the growth rate for FCS has been somewhat more volatile ( Figures 5a , b ). 8 The onset of the COVID-19 crisis in March 2020 led to a reduction in CD missions to FCS and non-FCS in FY2020 as missions were cancelled, reflecting the authorities’ shift in focus to crisis management and the sudden stop of travel. The switch to

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

’ data has significantly improved in recent years, owing to an STA CD mission in January 2020 that helped broaden the coverage of remittances from 2019 onwards. Nonetheless, remittances are still being underestimated as large transactions are taking place through channels that are not yet well captured. FDI data are now being produced based on surveys. On the financial account, challenges remain in understanding and having reliable figures on “other investments.” Long delays in receiving survey results contribute to a gap between the value of imports and the financial

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Burundi’s economy has shown resilience to the COVID-19 and Ukraine war shocks. Prior to the pandemic, the economy was recovering from the political and security crisis that followed late President Nkurunziza’s decision to run for a third term in 2015, with growth close to 2 percent in 2019. Difficult macroeconomic policy challenges persisted, nevertheless. The pandemic has taken a toll on the post-conflict fragile country, but COVID-19 contagion remained fairly contained and growth was positive. The war in Ukraine is compounding the adverse effects of the pandemic, with deteriorating terms of trade and the resulting domestic inflation threatening already-challenging living standards. Sanctions from the U.S. and E.U.—legacy of the 2015 crisis—have now been lifted. The U.N. Security Council ended mandatory reporting in Burundi and the country has reengaged with the international community. The 2022 Article IV consultation seals the full reengagement with the IMF—the last one was concluded in 2014.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

- February 2022 to facilitate implementation of the framework. 18. A remote mission to assist the authorities to implement the e-GDDS and publish data essential for surveillance through an NSDP took place in March/April 2022 . 1 Limited imports, including fuel imports, in 2021Q4 owing to limited FX reserves led to fuel shortages and a ban of the use of cycles in Bujumbura from March 2022 led to public transportation disruptions. 2 While remittances include money transfers from 2019 (STA CD mission of January 2020), informal flows are unaccounted