recommendations. Data quality issues undermine Fund surveillance of FCS more acutely than in non-FCS. Results-based management (RBM) ratings for CD are only slightly weaker for FCS than for non-FCS, indicating that efforts to tailor CD objectives and outcomes to the FCS context are generally successful. Since FY2016, the Statistics Department’s (STA) CD delivery to FCS had risen significantly, but the onset of the COVID-19 crisis in FY2020 weakened demand. Thanks to shorter, ad hoc interventions to address urgent issues identified by the statistical compilers, the share of FCS
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Building Statistical Capacity in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States
Prepared by Stephanie Medina Cas, Yasmin Alem, and Jacinta Bernadette Shirakawa 1
II. Statistical Characteristics of FCS
III. Data Issues
IV. CD Challenges
V. CD Delivery to FCS
VI. CD Delivery Through RCDCs and Thematic Trust Funds
VII. Monitoring Targeted Results
VIII. Determinants of STACD Mission Delivery
IX. FCS Case Studies: Strategic Policy Findings
X. Lessons and
Based on internal data, this paper finds that the capacity development program of the IMF’s Statistics Department has prioritized technical assistance and training to fragile and conflict-affected states. These interventions have yielded only slightly weaker results in fragile states than in other states. However, capacity development is constantly needed to make up for the dissipation of progress resulting from insufficient resources that fragile and conflict-affected states allocate to the statistical function, inadequate inter-agency coordination, and the pervasive impact of shocks exogenous to the statistical system. Greater coordination with other capacity development providers and within the IMF can help partially overcome low absorptive capacity in fragile states. Statistical capacity development is more effective when it is tailored to countries’ level of fragility.
Coordination with Other CD Providers : led by Teresa Curristine (FAD) with Myrvin Anthony (MCM), Oana Croitoru (ICD), and Lisbeth Rivas (STA).
CD Partnerships : led by Yasemin Bal Gunduz with input from Nathalie Carcenac (all ICD), based on work by ICD’s Global Partnerships Division.
CD Communications : led by Amit Khetarpaul (COM) with Oana Croitoru, Joanna Swirszcz, and Irina Kouropatkina (all ICD).
Dissemination of CD Documents : led by Stephanie Medina-Cas (STA) with Jim Beardow (COM), Pheabe Morris (LEG), and Nicolas Million (ICD
bank branches per 100,000 adults and ATMs per 100,000 adults) adopted by the UN to monitor Target 8.10 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Financial sector surveillance . Until 2018Q2, the BRB reported 13 core Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs) for deposit-takers and other encouraged FSIs along with metadata to the IMF for dissemination on its website. Since reengagement with the IMF in 2020, select FSIs have been shared with the IMF country team. During the 2022 Article IV mission, the authorities expressed interest in STACD support to compile the
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & and Review Department
4. More sustained financial support
LIC Facilities Review 2018
Budgeted in FY19 work program
5. Initiatives to strengthen CD
Explore FCS CD Trust Fund MCM and STACD stock takes Review of CBFs
Reallocated Reallocated Budgeted under Recommendation #2
Covered by Trust Fund contributors, except for backstopping costs n/a n/a
6. HR issues
HR Strategy Staffing gaps by functional departments in FCS program and near-program country teams Training on macroeconomics in FCS
Budgeted in FY19 work program n/a Reallocated
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & and Review Department
This management implementation plan (MIP) proposes actions to advance the Board-endorsed recommendations of the IEO evaluation “The IMF and Fragile States.” The actions outlined below would have resource implications. While some can be covered by reallocating resources or are already in the Work Program, others may require temporary funding; a review of staffing allocations to countries in fragile and conflict situations (FCS) might call for new permanent resources. The actions are broad in scope and self-reinforcing in effect if adopted as a package. They include: - Message of high-level commitment: Reflecting the actions of this MIP, a Management statement underscoring a strengthened institutional commitment to support FCS accompanies the MIP for Executive Board and IMFC endorsement. - An effective institutional mechanism: A high-level interdepartmental FCS Committee that reports to and seeks guidance in a formal meeting with management twice a year, will be established. The Committee will be tasked to analyze internal and external coordination issues in FCS and propose new ways tostrengthen engagement. An interdepartmental Technical Taskforce will support the Committee and report on progress in implementing this MIP, including through a Board paper on Review of FCS Engagement at end-2020. - Country engagement strategies: FCS teams will develop country engagement strategies that, drawing on relevant external expertise, will explicitly allow for thesocial and political context and the factors underpinning fragility; and lay the basis for full integration of capacity development (CD) with surveillance and lending. - Providing more sustained financial support: Staff is reviewing the lending toolkit for low-income countries to provide more tailored and flexible support, including for FCS, while ensuring uniformity of treatment. Staff will report on efforts to support FCS with protracted arrears to the Fund in the upcoming reviews of overdue financial obligations. - Practical steps to increase the impact of its CD support: Measures already in train will be complemented by the forthcoming Capacity Development (CD) Strategy Review’s assessment of initiatives to better integrate CD and Surveillance, including in FCS. Staff will also review the experience with provision of statistical and financial CD in FCS. And consideration will be given to establishing a FCS multi-donor trust fund or another suitable financing vehicle to address unmet needs for long-term experts. - Human Resources (HR) issues: The forthcoming phase of the HR Strategy will look into strategic workforce and career planning, including recruitment, and will consider actions to ensure that the Fund has appropriate staff expertise and experience to work effectively in fragile states. This will include the introduction of a “career” playbook that provides incentives for staff to be more responsive to the needs of the Fund in FCS. Adequacy of staffing allocations to FCS missions will be reviewed to ensure evenhanded treatment of the membership. Staff training on FCS will also be stepped up.
Burundi’s economy has shown resilience to the COVID-19 and Ukraine war shocks. Prior to the pandemic, the economy was recovering from the political and security crisis that followed late President Nkurunziza’s decision to run for a third term in 2015, with growth close to 2 percent in 2019. Difficult macroeconomic policy challenges persisted, nevertheless. The pandemic has taken a toll on the post-conflict fragile country, but COVID-19 contagion remained fairly contained and growth was positive. The war in Ukraine is compounding the adverse effects of the pandemic, with deteriorating terms of trade and the resulting domestic inflation threatening already-challenging living standards. Sanctions from the U.S. and E.U.—legacy of the 2015 crisis—have now been lifted. The U.N. Security Council ended mandatory reporting in Burundi and the country has reengaged with the international community. The 2022 Article IV consultation seals the full reengagement with the IMF—the last one was concluded in 2014.
This paper reports on the further developments since 2013 in the implementation of the 2010 Board decision concerning Government Finance Statistics (GFS) to Strengthen Fiscal Analysis, and develops a path to continued improvement of fiscal data in the Fund. The Board decision approved (i) developing a staggered migration strategy, including tailored capacity development inside and outside the Fund taking into consideration country-specific and fiscal surveillance needs; (ii) encouraging staff to continue the effort to routinely assess financial balance sheets during surveillance; (iii) gradually expanding the coverage of fiscal data, taking into consideration country-specific circumstances and fiscal risk assessments; and (iv) reaffirming the support for the phased implementation of the GFS over the medium term.
, which have proven essential for the analysis of key fiscal issues, have been compiled in a few countries .
Federated States of Micronesia
The Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) is a federation of four island states. Compiling GFS for the general government (consolidated federal and state governments) has long been a challenge due to geographical and capacity conditions. FSM received intensive GFS technical assistance under a STACD project funded by the Japanese government (JSA), which ended in late 2015. As a result, FSM has been able to compile GFS data