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Eric M. Pondi Endengle, Seung Mo Choi, and Ms. Pritha Mitra

households who are least equipped to handle the consequences of these shocks. The COVID-19 pandemic and other recent health and agriculture-related epidemics (e.g., Ebola, locust infestations) have further heightened SSA’s vulnerabilities to climate shocks by substantially weakening the population’s economic and health conditions. In designing post-pandemic recovery strategies, SSA policymakers may be considering urgently needed climate-resilience measures to preserve the region’s growth and development prospects. However, the pandemic’s steep economic toll has limited

Anna Belianska, Nadja Bohme, Kailhao Cai, Yoro Diallo, Saanya Jain, Mr. Giovanni Melina, Ms. Pritha Mitra, Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, and Solo Zerbo
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is the region in the world most vulnerable to climate change despite its cumulatively emitting the least amount of greenhouse gases. Substantial financing is urgently needed across the economy—for governments, businesses, and households—to support climate change adaptation and mitigation, which are critical for advancing resilient and green economic development as well as meeting commitments under the Paris Agreement. Given the immensity of SSA’s other development needs, this financing must be in addition to existing commitments on development finance. There are many potential ways to raise financing to meet adaptation and mitigation needs, spanning from domestic revenue mobilization to various forms of international private financing. Against this backdrop, S SA policymakers and stakeholders are exploring sources of financing for climate action that countries may not have used substantially in the past. This Staff Climate Note presents some basic information on opportunities and challenges associated with these financing instruments.
Mr. Shamsuddin Tareq, Mr. Andrew Berg, Victor Duarte Lledo, Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo, Mr. Rolando Ossowski, Irene Yackovlev, Mr. Norbert Funke, Alejandro Hajdenberg, and Mr. Martin Schindler
The global financial crisis poses significant challenges to fiscal policies in Sub-Saharan African countries. Growth will weaken considerably as export prices and volumes, remittances, tourism, and capital flows decline. The fiscal effects of the crisis are likely to be large and to operate mainly via revenue losses, with commodity-related revenues particularly hard hit. Countries will need to weigh their options for fiscal policy responses. Countries with output gaps and sustainable debt and financing options have scope to implement expansionary policies, by letting automatic stabilizers work, accommodating declines in commodity-related revenues, and in some cases implementing discretionary fiscal stimulus. The focus of fiscal stimulus should be on the expenditure side, particularly infrastructure and social spending given pressing needs, as reducing tax rates may be inequitable and the scope for doing so is limited given low revenue ratios. Other countries will have to adjust, in a way that will not affect critical spending. Additional donor support would reduce the need for adjustment. In all cases, countries should give priority to expanding social safety nets as needed to cushion the impact of the crisis on the poor.
Oumar Diallo and Mr. Sampawende J Tapsoba
This paper assesses the extent to which Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)’s business cycle is synchronized with that of the rest of the world (RoW). Findings suggest that SSA’s business cycle has not only moved in the same direction as that of the RoW, but has also gradually drifted away from the G7 in favour of the BRICs. Trade with the BRICs turns out to be the strongest driver of this shift. Much of this impact unfolds through aggregate demand impulse from trade. As fiscal policy stances in SSA and the BRICs are not synchronized, they have not caused cyclical output correlation between these two groups of countries. Also, financial openness, which is at a very early stage across most SSA countries, has acted as a neutral force.
Eric M. Pondi Endengle, Seung Mo Choi, and Ms. Pritha Mitra
This paper assesses the impact of climate-related disasters on medium-term growth and analyzes key structural areas that could substantially improve disaster-resilience. Results show that (i) climaterelated disasters have a significant negative impact on medium-term growth, especially for sub-Saharan Africa; and (ii) a disaster’s intensity matters much more than its frequency, given the non-linear cumulative effects of disasters. In sub-Saharan Africa, electrification (facilitating irrigation) is found to be most effective for reducing damage from droughts while improved health care and education outcomes are critical for raising resilience to floods and storms. Better access to finance, telecommunications, and use of machines in agriculture also have a significant impact.
Charlotte J. Lundgren, Mr. Alun H. Thomas, and Mr. Robert C York
Sizeable natural resource endowments and potentially large financial inflows from their extraction provide an unparalleled opportunity for economic growth and development in a growing number of sub-Saharan African countries. Empirical evidence suggests, however, that translating this resource wealth into stronger economic performance and a higher standard of living has proven challenging. Much has been written about the resource curse. This publication focuses on solutions to the challenges and outlines the main policy considerations and options in managing natural resource wealth, drawing on experience within and outside sub-Saharan Africa and referring closely to the latest analysis and policy advice in this area by the IMF, the World Bank, and leading academic research. A key feature of each chapter is a recommended reading list for those who wish additional, more in-depth material on these issues to further inform policymakers and other stakeholders on the theoretical and analytical underpinnings of the policy advice.
Diogo Miguel Salgado Baptista, Mrs. Mai Farid, Dominique Fayad, Laurent Kemoe, Loic S Lanci, Ms. Pritha Mitra, Tara S Muehlschlegel, Cedric Okou, John A Spray, Kevin Tuitoek, and Ms. Filiz D Unsal
Climate change is intensifying food insecurity across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) with lasting adverse macroeconomic effects, especially on economic growth and poverty. Successive shocks from the war in Ukraine and COVID-19 pandemic have increased food prices and depressed incomes, raising the number of people suffering from high malnutrition and unable to meet basic food consumption needs by at least 30 percent to 123 million in 2022 or 12 percent of SSA’s population. Addressing the lack of resilience to climate change—that critically underlies food insecurity in SSA—will require careful policy prioritization against a backdrop of financing and capacity constraints. This paper presents some key considerations and examples of tradeoffs and complementarities across policies to address food insecurity. Key findings include (1) Fiscal policies focused on social assistance and efficient public infrastructure investment can improve poorer households’ access to affordable food, facilitate expansion of climate-resilient and green agricultural production, and support quicker recovery from adverse climate events; (2) Improving access to finance is key to stepping up private investment in agricultural resilience and productivity as well as improving the earning capacity and food purchasing power of poorer rural and urban households; and (3) Greater regional trade integration, complemented with resilient transport infrastructure, enables sales of one country’s bumper harvests to its neighbors’ facing shortages. The international community can help with financial assistance—especially for the above-mentioned social assistance and key infrastructure areas—capacity development, and facilitating transfers of technology and know-how.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
'Africa: Making Its Move' explores some of the obstacles facing sub-Saharan Africa as it attempts to capitalize on changes that offer fresh opportunities for growth and poverty reduction. The lead article describes the changes and suggests how Africa can build on them to progress further. Other articles focus on the aid situation, financial sector development, trade, the business environment, and political and policy reform on the continent. 'Country Focus' examines the Central African Economic and Monetary Community, and two guest contributors look at how the international community can help the most fragile states and how oil-producing countries can manage windfall revenues. 'People in Economics' profiles the European Central bank's first chief economist, Otmar Issing; 'Picture This' examines the global housing slowdown; and 'Back to Basics,' explains current account deficits. Another article discusses the realities of health financing.
Mr. Calvin A McDonald, Mr. Volker Treichel, and Hans Weisfeld

Botswana, foreigners cannot hold central bank bills. In addition, exchange rate appreciation as a result of capital inflows may reduce external competitiveness—known as Dutch disease. In many SSA countries, export industries are already under pressure from currency appreciation arising from commodity price booms, such as those in oil and metals. Balancing capital inflows and risks The key challenge for SSA policymakers in managing capital inflows is to take advantage of these inflows while minimizing the associated risks. To meet this challenge, policymakers

Mr. Shamsuddin Tareq, Mr. Andrew Berg, Victor Duarte Lledo, Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo, Mr. Rolando Ossowski, Irene Yackovlev, Mr. Norbert Funke, Alejandro Hajdenberg, and Mr. Martin Schindler

considerations that should guide SSA policymakers in framing sound fiscal policy responses to the global financial crisis. Finally, Section VI sets out the fiscal areas where the IMF provides technical support to SSA countries. II. O verall I mpact of the C risis on M acroeconomic C onditions in SSA During 2004–08, SSA countries enjoyed high growth rates (averaging about 6½ percent), and a number of these countries achieved macroeconomic stability, as reflected in low inflation and sustainable debt. Improved economic policies, market-oriented reforms, and the