This paper presents a set of collaborative filtering algorithms that produce product recommendations to diversify and optimize a country's export structure in support of sustainable long-term growth. The recommendation system is able to accurately predict the historical trends in export content and structure for high-growth countries, such as China, India, Poland, and Chile, over 20-year spans. As a contemporary case study, the system is applied to Paraguay, to create recommendations for the country's export diversification strategy.
expanding from “bovine animals” (0011) to “swine” (0013) be counted as diversification? How about an export expansion from “sheep” (00121) to “goats” (00122)?
To answer this question, we shall keep in mind the purpose and benefit of export diversification, which is to create new growth engines and to reduce economic volatility. So any activities to expand the export basket should have the potential to support at least one of these two goals, for it to be counted as diversification in the economic sense. Examining the SITCproductlists leads the present paper to