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Victor Duarte Lledo and Mr. Roberto Perrelli
This paper uses a novel macroeconomic framework to identify policy and financing options to help Rwanda achieve its sustainable development goals (SDGs). Under current policies, Rwanda would meet its SDGs right after 2050. Active policies that combine fiscal reforms and higher private sector participation could fulfill more than one third of Rwanda’s post-pandemic SDG financing gap, enabling the country to meet its SDG targets by 2040. For Rwanda to meet its SDGs by 2030, active policies would need to be complemented with about 13¾ percentage points of GDP in additional resources annually until then.
Ms. Dora Benedek, Mr. Edward R Gemayel, Abdelhak S Senhadji, and Alexander F. Tieman

the median of peers in health, education, water and sanitation, and infrastructure ( Figure A1 ). The country is strongly committed to ensuring ownership of its 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) both at the national and local levels and across stakeholders. Figure A1. Performance across SDG Needs (Index, 0-100) Source: IMF staff calculations Despite Rwanda’s remarkable progress, achieving the SDGs will be a daunting challenge. Closing Rwanda’s development gaps requires substantial additional resources. Taking the costing estimates in Gaspar

Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan, Juan Pablo Cuesta Aguirre, and David Bartolini

–24 Effectiveness of Social Programs B. Education C. Health III. The Impact of COVID-19 A. The Impact of Government Programs During the Pandemic B. Pandemic, Scarring Risks, and Beyond IV. Path to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) A. Description of the Framework and SDG Needs B. Scarring Effects C. Financing Needs V. Recommendations and Conclusions VI. References VII. Tables VIII. Figures

Victor Duarte Lledo and Mr. Roberto Perrelli

Progress and Challenges B. Pre-Pandemic Financing Gaps IV. The COVID-19 Impact on Rwanda V. Rwanda’s SDG Financing: Post-Pandemic Gap and Policy Options VI. SDG Financing: The Perils of Scarring VII. Concluding Remarks References Box 1. Rwanda’s COVID-19 Crisis Response Figures Figure 1. Rwanda: Performance across Selected SDGs Figure 2. Rwanda: SDG Needs according to IMF Costing Mission Figure 3: Rwanda: Pandemic-Related Real Output Losses, 2018–25 Figure 4: Rwanda: Gross Nominal Public Debt Paths, 2018–30 Figure 5. Rwanda: Changes in

Ms. Dora Benedek, Mr. Edward R Gemayel, Mr. Abdelhak S Senhadji, and Alexander F. Tieman
The COVID-19 pandemic hit countries’ development agendas hard. The ensuing recession has pushed millions into extreme poverty and has shrunk government resources available for spending on achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This Staff Discussion Note assesses the current state of play on funding SDGs in five key development areas: education, health, roads, electricity, and water and sanitation, using a newly developed dynamic macroeconomic framework.
Ms. Dora Benedek, Mr. Edward R Gemayel, Abdelhak S Senhadji, and Alexander F. Tieman

complementary. Hence investment in one type of capital raises the return on investment in other types of capital. The framework is applied to the financing of SDGs. Taking the assessment of SDG needs in human and physical infrastructure as given (from Gaspar and others 2019 or more recent costing assessments), the model allows its user to construct different financing scenarios. For each scenario, it shows whether the SDG targets can be met or, if not, how large the remaining financing gap is on average between the current and the target years. The baseline sets the SDG

Victor Duarte Lledo and Mr. Roberto Perrelli

further constrained. Growth and tax revenues plummeted following the pandemic, while the government increased expenditures to mitigate the ensuing health and economic crisis. Public debt surged as a result. Debt-to-GDP ratios are projected to increase by more than 10 percentage points by end-2021, raising the risk of debt distress from low to medium ( IMF, 2021 ). As a result, the fiscal space to spend on SDG needs has narrowed. The dynamic financing framework shows that the pandemic has widened Rwanda’s financing gap to meet its 2030 SDG targets by about 5

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

4.6 percent of GDP, and strengthening spending efficiency and private sector involvement could each cover about 1 percent of GDP. Still, STP’s SDG needs (14 percent of GDP per year) would far exceed potential domestic public and private resources (6.3 percent of GDP per year), suggesting that development partners may have to contribute to financing the residual human capital and infrastructure investment gap (7.7 percent of GDP). 19. The authorities’ strong efforts could focus on a combination of domestic revenue mobilization, higher public spending efficiency

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

in key SDG areas and evaluates the authorities’ options for financing this gap without jeopardizing debt sustainability . The paper shows that (i) The Gambia’s current status of infrastructure is broadly at the average of peer countries but is significantly below the SDG needs; and (ii) closing this infrastructure gap requires a combination of strong policies (i.e. domestic revenue mobilization and spending efficiency), international support, and private sector participation. B. Stylized Facts 5. The Gambia has mixed performance relative to Sub

Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan, Juan Pablo Cuesta Aguirre, and David Bartolini
Poverty in Mexico was high before the COVID-19 pandemic and has been exacerbated by the pandemic, with significant variation across states. Education losses from the pandemic are likely to be large and worsen pre-existing disparities; unless mitigated soon, they could contribute to heightened scarring over the medium term. Using state-level and cross-country comparisons, this paper reviews key social programs as well as priorities in education and health. It finds that higher spending and improved design of social programs (e.g., better targeting) would reduce socioeconomic gaps, mitigate scarring risks, and foster inclusive growth.