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International Monetary Fund

impediments to growth, and the heavy toll of HIV/AIDS on economic activity. The economic outlook shows only moderate growth averaging 2 percent over the medium term. Inflation has slowed in recent months (4.5 percent in October 2010) and is projected to remain moderate over the medium term. The impact of the crisis has been felt the most in the revenue transfers of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) to Swaziland. SACU imports fell sharply in 2009 due to the contraction of economic activity in South Africa and the unwinding of infrastructure spending associated with

International Monetary Fund

distributed it among members on the basis of fixed (not trade-related) shares, which gave it more than 90 percent of the revenue. The 1969 agreement distributed customs union revenue using a formula that calculates revenue shares for each BLNS country with South Africa’s share being what remains. The formula allocates customs and excise duties according to each country’s share of total extra- and intra-SACU imports and excisable goods consumed within the customs union. The formula also contains a provision that enhances each BLNS country’s revenue receipts by 42 percent

International Monetary Fund

element into the RSF. In particular, the RSF was formulated in such a way as to provide some compensation to the BLS for the cost of trade diversion associated with the CET that was determined solely by South Africa’s industrial policy. 10 Under the modified RSF, the CRP was allocated on the basis of SACU imports and excisable goods. Allocations to BLS had two components: a portion based on their share in imports and excise revenue; and a compensatory component set at 42 percent on their CRP receipts. 11 South Africa’s share of revenue was determined as a residual

International Monetary Fund
The Selected Issues paper provides an overview of trends, performance export growth, value added, and employment, account of the structure and evolution of Lesotho's textiles during the decade through 2002, and discusses future prospects and key issues. It analyzes the implications of the phasing-out of the African Growth and Opportunity Act and also reviews the HIV/AIDS situation in Lesotho. It discusses the current situation, the measures to enhance financial intermediation, and the Southern African Customs Union Arrangement and its effects on revenues. The paper also includes the summary of tax systems, July 2003, and the exchange trade system.
Luis-Felipe Zanna, Olivier Basdevant, Ms. Susan S. Yang, Ms. Genevieve Verdier, Mr. Joannes Mongardini, and Dalmacio Benicio
Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, and Swaziland face the serious challenge of adjusting not only to lower Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU) transfers because of the global economic crisis, but also to a potential further decline over the medium term. This paper assesses options for the design of the needed fiscal consolidation. The choice among these options should be driven by (i) the impact on growth and (ii) the specificities of each country. Overall, a focus on government consumption cuts appears to minimize the negative impact on growth, and would be appropriate given the relatively large size of the public sector in each country.
Mr. Thomson Fontaine, Dalmacio Benicio, Mr. Joannes Mongardini, Ms. Genevieve Verdier, and Mr. Gonzalo C Pastor Campos

Expenditure 3. Public Debt Arithmetic 4. Model 5. Calibration Bibliography Figures 1. World GDP Growth and SACU Imports, 2000–15 2. Gross public Debt Dynamics in the BLNS Under Baseline and Adjustment Scenarios 3. Comparison of Expenditure Levels in the BLNS with the Rest of the World 4. Comparison of Civil Service Wage in the BLNS with the Rest of SSA 5. Recurrent and Investment Spending Cuts: No Sterilization 6. Recurrent and Investment Spending Cuts: Sterilization 7. Recurrent Spending Cuts: No Sterilization 8. Recurrent Spending Cuts

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

AfCFTA provides an opportunity to diversify export markets. Given that Lesotho’s imports are highly concentrated and arrive predominantly duty-free from South Africa under SACU (imports from other African countries comprise less than 1 percent of total imports), there is little scope for change in import patterns, at least in the short run. Likewise, exports to African countries outside of SACU/SADC are negligible. However, the AfCFTA has the potential to open new market opportunities for apparel exporters to further diversify their markets toward other African

Mr. Jiro Honda, Manabu Nose, Cesar Sosa Padilla, Mr. Jose L. Torres, Ms. Murna Morgan, Mr. Fernando G Im, and Ms. Natalia A Koliadina

2002. The 1969 revision included excise duties in the pool and provided for a multiplier that enhanced revenues by 42 percent annually. It also linked the customs revenues to not only extra-SACU imports but also intra-SACU imports. The 2002 revisions defined customs revenues in relation to intra-SACU imports, separated the excise pool into the excise and development components, and agreed on the administrative institutional structure of the RSF. 1 Strong legal basis ensured the compliance of fiscal rules in Hong Kong SAR. Hong Kong SAR has been maintaining a