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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uruguay: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

introduced by Balassa & Noland (1965), is a popular measure in the economic literature for calculating the relative importance of a product in a country’s export basket. Formally, the RCA score of country i in product j can be calculated as: R C A p c = E p c / E c E p / Σ p ′ ∈ P E p ′ where E pc is the export value of product p from country c , E c is the total export values of country c, E p is the total exports of product p from all countries around the world, and ∑ p'∈P E p' is the total world exports. 6. A high-RCA export product for country

Keywords:
KNN algorithm; RCA export; export product complexity ranking; export product complexity index; export structure; Export diversification; Manufacturing; Agricultural commodities
Cover IMF Working Papers
Front Matter
Ms. Natasha X Che

Recommendation Models 3: Chile: Stats of Recommendation Models 4: Poland: Stats of Recommendation Models 5: Paraguay: Stats of Recommendation Models 6: Paraguay: Actual vs Recommended Export Structure 7: Paraguay: Top 10 Categories with Increased Product Shares 8: Paraguay: Top 10 Categories with Reduced Product Shares FIGURES 1: Number of High-RCA Exports of Select High Growth Countries 2: Number of High-RCA Exports of Select Low Growth Countries 3: Number of High-RCA Exports vs Income Level, Partial Regression Plot 4: Real GDP Growth vs Number of High-RCA

Keywords:
WP; SITC product lists; price boom; product-space literature; country-product space; export basket; export product; KNN implementation; export diversificiation; comparative advantage; machine learning; collaborative filtering; economic growth; international trade; RCA export; export structure; diversification strategy; KNN recommender; export diversification recommendation; product name; Exports; Export diversification; Personal income; East Asia; Caribbean; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Intelligent Export Diversification: An Export Recommendation System with Machine Learning
Ms. Natasha X Che
This paper presents a set of collaborative filtering algorithms that produce product recommendations to diversify and optimize a country's export structure in support of sustainable long-term growth. The recommendation system is able to accurately predict the historical trends in export content and structure for high-growth countries, such as China, India, Poland, and Chile, over 20-year spans. As a contemporary case study, the system is applied to Paraguay, to create recommendations for the country's export diversification strategy.
Keywords:
WP; SITC product lists; price boom; product-space literature; country-product space; export basket; export product; KNN implementation; export diversificiation; comparative advantage; machine learning; collaborative filtering; economic growth; international trade; RCA export; export structure; diversification strategy; KNN recommender; export diversification recommendation; product name; Exports; Export diversification; Personal income; East Asia; Caribbean; Africa; Global; export diversification strategy
Cover IMF Working Papers
Intelligent Export Diversification: An Export Recommendation System with Machine Learning
Ms. Natasha X Che

been relatively slow. In these countries, export diversification has either been stagnant or decreasing. Figure 1: Number of High-RCA Exports of Select High Growth Countries Figure 2: Number of High-RCA Exports of Select Low Growth Countries The relationship between export diversification and economic growth, as well as between diversification and the stability of growth, can be observed in cross-country data as well. Examining the export data by SIC 4-digit industry. 3 reveals the following stylized facts. First of all, higher-income economies

Keywords:
WP; SITC product lists; price boom; product-space literature; country-product space; export basket; export product; KNN implementation; export diversificiation; comparative advantage; machine learning; collaborative filtering; economic growth; international trade; RCA export; export structure; diversification strategy; KNN recommender; export diversification recommendation; product name; Exports; Export diversification; Personal income; East Asia; Caribbean; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Front Matter
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Exports Have Become Less Diversified D. Machine Learning Algorithms to Explore Export Diversification Options E. The Application to Uruguay F. Conclusion References FIGURES 1. Number of High-RCA Exports vs GDP Growth and Growth Volatility 2. Export Diversification in Countries of Similar Sizes to Uruguay 3. The Number of High-RCA Exports from Uruguay, 1962–2018 4. Actual and Recommended Export Composition for High-RCA Exports TABLES 1. Summary Statistics of the Algorithm Recommendations 2. Actual and Recommended Export Composition for High-RCA

Keywords:
export diversification option; inflation stickiness; commodity export price increase; export product diversification analysis; Uruguay's goods export; Export diversification; Inflation; Exports
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uruguay: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
export diversification option; inflation stickiness; commodity export price increase; world inflation; algorithm recommendation; D. machine learning algorithm; central bank institution; Exports; Inflation; Commodity prices; Comparative advantage; Fiscal rules; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Front Matter
Jesmin Rahman, Ara Stepanyan, Jessie Yang, and Mr. Li Zeng

Front Matter Page European Department Contents I. Introduction II. Evolution of Exports to the EU Single Market: Relative Success and Determinants III. Export Quality and Diversification in NMS: Room for Growth IV. Services Exports: Non-tariff Barriers Are Holding Back Performance V. Policy Implications Tables 1. Determinants of Value-Added Exports of Goods and Services to EU: NMS-10, 2003–11 2. RCA: Exports on Professional and Technical Services Figures 1. Tariff Liberalization and Export Growth, 1990–2014 2. NMS: Gross

Keywords:
WP; export; country; export quality; single market; supply chain
Cover IMF Working Papers
High Performance Export Portfolio: Design Growth-Enhancing Export Structure with Machine Learning
Ms. Natasha X Che and Xuege Zhang
This paper studies the relationship between export structure and growth performance. We design an export recommendation system using a collaborative filtering algorithm based on countries' revealed comparative advantages. The system is used to produce export portfolio recommendations covering over 190 economies and over 30 years. We find that economies with their export structure more aligned with the recommended export structure achieve better growth performance, in terms of both higher GDP growth rate and lower growth volatility. These findings demonstrate that export structure matters for obtaining high and stable growth. Our recommendation system can serve as a practical tool for policymakers seeking actionable insights on their countries’ export potential and diversification strategies that may be complex and hard to quantify.
Keywords:
export diversification; comparative advantage; machine learning; collaborative filtering; economic growth; international trade; export structure; export portfolio recommendation; export recommendation system; performance export portfolio; export potential; Exports; Comparative advantage; Export diversification; Human capital; Total factor productivity; Global; East Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Brunei Darussalam: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
After successfully weathering the pandemic in 2020, Brunei was hit by new waves of COVID-19, with case numbers going up significantly and new lockdown measures imposed in H2 2021. Reduced activities in mining and LNG manufacturing, combined with the negative impact of new pandemic variants on domestic services, led to a slowdown in the economy. Real GDP contracted by 1.6 percent in 2021. For 2022, growth is projected to rebound to 1.2 percent, on the back of easing of mobility constraints and a positive terms of trade shock due to surges in O&G prices. Inflation, while remaining relatively low at 2.2 percent at end 2021, has increased in 2022 and pressures are expected to remain elevated in the short term, owing to supply disruptions and higher food and fuel prices. The economy continues to diversify, with double-digit growth of the food/agriculture sector and a new fertilizer sector commencing production. The risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, due to potential new COVID-19 variants, increased global uncertainty associated with an escalation of the war in Ukraine, monetary tightening from the US and a larger-than-expected growth slowdown in China. On the upside, higher energy prices would further improve the terms of trade and restore fiscal positions in the short term, while partially contributing to build the buffers needed to ensure stronger intergenerational equity. Strong policy actions are needed to boost medium-term growth and foster resilience.
Keywords:
liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; money market rate; GDP estimate; CPI weight; transparency policy; mining sector production; inflation risk; Energy prices; COVID-19; Fiscal stance; Government finance statistics; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Raising Armenia’s Export Potential
Klakow Akepanidtaworn, Lili Karapetyan, Nathalie Reyes, and Ms. Yulia Ustyugova
Raising Armenia’s long-term growth prospects is critical to meet the pressing need for jobs, achieve higher living standards, and arrest emigration. Armenia’s long-term growth prospects have weakened since the global COVID-19 crisis, while recent global and regional the geopolitical developments added new shocks. This paper argues that there is a need to boost the potential of the tradable sector by focusing on products with higher complexity to sustainably increase Armenia’s growth rate. It provides an overview of Armenia’s export performance, analyzes factors and policy valuables that affect export outcomes in terms of volumes and composition, and draws policy implications.
Keywords:
Empirical Studies of Trade; Trade Policy; Armenia trade agreements; Armenia's export potential; policy valuables; export Complexity; unit root; Exports; Export performance; Service exports; Trade agreements; Real effective exchange rates; Global; Europe