become a Fields medalist is fifty times larger than the corresponding probability for a PhDgraduate from a top 10 mathematics program.
We then investigate whether success in the IMO might have a causal effect on subsequent achievements in mathematics. To do so, we exploit the fact that IMO medals are an important summary of IMO performance, and are allocated solely based on the number of points scored at the IMO. We implement a regression discontinuity research design comparing those who nearly made a medal threshold versus those who nearly missed them. We find no
2.11. Number of PhDGraduates per 1000 Population, 2010
2.12. Vocational Education: Numbers of Students and Institutions, 2005–11
2.13. Selected EU Countries: Total Public Expenditure on Secondary Education, 2008
2.14. EU Countries: Participation in Lifelong Learning, 2011
2.15. EU Countries: Participation in Continuing Vocational Education, 2005
The advancement of the knowledge frontier is crucial for technological innovation and human progress. Using novel data from the setting of mathematics, this paper establishes two results. First, we document that individuals who demonstrate exceptional talent in their teenage years have an irreplaceable ability to create new ideas over their lifetime, suggesting that talent is a central ingredient in the production of knowledge. Second, such talented individuals born in low- or middle-income countries are systematically less likely to become knowledge producers. Our findings suggest that policies to encourage exceptionally-talented youth to pursue scientific careers—especially those from lower income countries—could accelerate the advancement of the knowledge frontier.
, including winning the Fields Medal. The Fields Medal is the mathematics equivalent of the Nobel Prize and is awarded every four years to up to four people under the age of 40. Our research shows that the probability of an IMO gold medalist (someone scoring in about the top 10 percent of the competition) winning a Fields Medal is 50 times greater than the probability of a PhDgraduate from a top-10 mathematics program doing so.
At the same time, we found a developing economy penalty throughout the talent distribution. Compared with their counterparts from high
This note presents estimates of potential growth and the output gap in Latvia. The estimates suggest that the output has marked below potential in the early 2000s but the output gap becomes positive and large after EU accession. With unemployment still well above its natural level, the output gap is estimated to be negative in 2012, but is expected to narrow gradually and be closed in the next 3–4 years. Potential growth is expected to be substantially lower than in 2002–07.
the pinnacle of scientific achievement are not in the sample. For instance, in our sample of Nobel laureates, only one was born in a low income or lower middle-income country. To reduce the role of this survivorship bias, we can instead focus on a set of highly talented individuals much earlier as teenagers: medalists of the IMO. Prior work ( Agarwal & Gaule 2020 ) shows that such talented youth are especially capable of advancing the knowledge frontier. For example, an IMO gold medalist is fifty times more likely to win a Fields Medal in math compared to other PhD
This paper studies the impact of U.S. immigration barriers on global knowledge production. We present four key findings. First, among Nobel Prize winners and Fields Medalists, migrants to the U.S. play a central role in the global knowledge network—representing 20-33% of the frontier knowledge producers. Second, using novel survey data and hand-curated life-histories of International Math Olympiad (IMO) medalists, we show that migrants to the U.S. are up to six times more productive than migrants to other countries—even after accounting for talent during one’s teenage years. Third, financing costs are a key factor preventing foreign talent from migrating abroad to pursue their dream careers, particularly for talent from developing countries. Fourth, certain ‘push’ incentives that reduce immigration barriers—by addressing financing constraints for top foreign talent—could increase the global scientific output of future cohorts by 42 percent. We concludeby discussing policy options for the U.S. and the global scientific community.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
. Female primary enrollment and literacy rates are high and on a par with male rates. However, disparities are still visible in primary education completion and secondary-and-above enrolment rates. For instance, only 40 percent of PhDgraduates are female. To address this issue, the Ministry of Education and Training is implementing a comprehensive renovation of the education system with the goal to ensure gender equality in curriculum and textbooks.
The women’s health and survival indicator, although very close to equality, has recently fallen . In part, this is
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Vietnam’s economy has experienced solid growth with low inflation, reflecting policy attention to maintaining macroeconomic stability. Economic performance was robust through most of 2015, driven by rapid export growth, foreign direct investment, and strong domestic demand. Manufacturing and exports moderated near year-end, reflecting slowing external demand. Inflation declined below 1 percent in 2015 before ticking upward in early 2016 owing to higher food and administered prices. For 2016, growth is projected to moderate to about 6 percent, reflecting the adverse agriculture shock, lower external demand, and spillovers of tighter global financial conditions.