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Mr. Simon Black, Ian Parry, Mr. James Roaf, and Karlygash Zhunussova
Achieving the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals requires cutting global CO2 emissions 25 to 50 percent this decade, followed by a rapid transition to net zero emissions. The world is currently not yet on track so there is an urgent need to narrow gaps in climate mitigation ambition and policy. Current mitigation pledges for 2030 would achieve just one to two thirds of the emissions reductions needed for limiting warming to 1.5 to 2oC. And additional measures equivalent to a global carbon price exceeding $75 per ton by 2030 are needed. This IMF Staff Climate Note presents extensive quantitative analyses to inform dialogue on closing mitigation ambition and policy gaps. It shows purely illustrative pathways to achieve the needed global emissions reductions while respecting international equity. The Note also presents country-level analyses of the emissions, fiscal, economic, and distributional impacts of carbon pricing and the trade-offs with other instruments—comprehensive mitigation strategies will be key.
Ian Parry and Karlygash Zhunussova

Achieving the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals requires cutting global CO2 emissions 25 to 50 percent this decade, followed by a rapid transition to net zero emissions. The world is currently not yet on track so there is an urgent need to narrow gaps in climate mitigation ambition and policy. Current mitigation pledges for 2030 would achieve just one to two thirds of the emissions reductions needed for limiting warming to 1.5 to 2oC. And additional measures equivalent to a global carbon price exceeding $75 per ton by 2030 are needed. This IMF Staff Climate Note presents extensive quantitative analyses to inform dialogue on closing mitigation ambition and policy gaps. It shows purely illustrative pathways to achieve the needed global emissions reductions while respecting international equity. The Note also presents country-level analyses of the emissions, fiscal, economic, and distributional impacts of carbon pricing and the trade-offs with other instruments—comprehensive mitigation strategies will be key.

Ian Parry and Karlygash Zhunussova

Title Page STAFF CLIMATE NOTES Not Yet on Track to Net Zero The Urgent Need for Greater Ambition and Policy Action to Achieve Paris Temperature Goals Simon Black, Ian Parry, James Roaf, and Karlygash Zhunussova IMF STAFF CLIMATE NOTE 2021/005 Copyright Page ©2021 International Monetary Fund Not Yet on Track to Net Zero: The Urgent Need for Greater Ambition and Policy Action to Achieve Paris Temperature Goals IMF Staf Climate Note 2021/005 Simon Black, Ian Parry, James Roaf, and Karlygash Zhunussova* DISCLAIMER : The IMF Notes

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

-Rich Country ,” IMF How to Notes . Baunsgaard , T. , M. Villafuerte , M. Poplawski-Ribeiro , and C. Richmond , 2012 , “ Fiscal Frameworks for Resource Rich Developing Countries .” IMF Staff Discussion Note 12/04 , International Monetary Fund , Washington, DC . Black , Simon , Ian Parry , James Roaf , and Karlygash Zhunussova , 2021 , “ Not Yet on Track to Net Zero: The Urgent Need for Greater Ambition and Policy Action to Achieve Paris Temperature Goals .” IMF Staff Climate Note 2021/005 , International Monetary Fund

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

would facilitate the development of green financing market mechanisms, which could help Indonesia meets its financing needs for climate change. References Asian Development Bank , 2017 , Meeting Asia’s Infrastructure Needs ( Metro Manila, Philippines ). Black , Simon , Ian Parry , James Roaf , and Karlygash Zhunussova , 2021 , Not Yet on Track to Net Zero : The Urgent Need for Greater Ambition and Policy Action to Achieve Paris Temperature Goals , IMF Staff Climate Note 2021/005 ( Washington : International Monetary Fund

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Roaf , and Karlygash Zhunussova . 2021 . “ Not Yet on Track to Net Zero: The Urgent Need for Greater Ambition and Policy Action to Achieve Paris Temperature Goals ”. IMF Staff Climate Note 2021/005 , International Monetary Fund , Washington, DC. Parry , Ian , Simon Black and Nate Vernon . 2021 . “ Still Not Getting Energy Prices Right: A Global and Country Update of Fossil Fuel Subsidies. ” Working paper 20/236 , International Monetary Fund , Washington, DC. Sundaram , Ramya , Nithin Umapathi , et al. 2016 . “ Weathering the Crisis

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Greater Ambition and Policy Action to Achieve Paris Temperature Goals ,” IMF Staff Climate Notes No. 2021/005 , International Monetary Fund , Washington, D.C . Boston Consulting Group , 2022 , “ Presentation of the Slovak Emission Reduction Curve (MACC)”, Working Meeting at the Ministry of Finance of the Slovak Republic . Chateau , Jean , Florence Jaumotte , and Gregor Schwerhoff , 2022 , “ Economic and Environmental Benefits from International Cooperation on Climate Policies ,” IMF Research Departmental Paper No. 2022/007 , International

International Monetary Fund

Track to Net Zero: The Urgent Need for Greater Ambition and Policy Action to Achieve Paris Temperature Goals,” IMF Staff Climate Note 2021/005 , International Monetary Fund , Washington, DC . International Monetary Fund (IMF) . 2021b . “ Strengthening Infrastructure Governance for Climate-Responsive Public Investment .” IMF Policy Paper 2021/076 , Washington, DC . Jordà , Oscar , Moritz Schularick , and Alan M. Taylor . 2017 . “ Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts .” NBER Macroeconomics Annual 31 ( 1 ): 213 – 63

Ian W.H. Parry, Mr. Simon Black, and Karlygash Zhunussova

regional pricing. Mexico does not include subnational pricing schemes due to lack of coverage data. References Andrew , R. M. , 2019 . Global CO 2 emissions from cement production, 1928–2018 . Earth System Science Data 11 , 1675 – 1710 . https://0-doi-org.library.svsu.edu/10.5194/essd-11-1675-2019 . Black , Simon , Ian Parry , James Roaf , and Karlygash Zhunussova . 2021 . “ Not Yet on Track to Net Zero: The Urgent Need for Greater Ambition and Policy Action to Achieve Paris Temperature Goals .” IMF Staff Climate Note 2021/005 , International