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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Belarus
Technical Assistance Report-Monetary Policy Modeling
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

. Establishing a Head of the forecasting team (FT) and considering personal sustainability within the FT. Short Term 3 MPEAD Management QPM team Preferably before the next forecasting round. Expanding the modeling team by at least 2 experts. Medium Term 5 MPEAD Management New members of the team can participate in the follow-up mission in 4Q 2018. Improving the NTF techniques , fiscal policy analyses in particular. Medium Term 7 NTF experts Improving internal and external communication with the aim of making it more efficient and

Keywords:
ISCR; CR; monetary policy; QPM; Near-term forecast; FPAS; TA mission; QPM team; monetary policy meeting; forecast scenario; NBRB flagship publication; NTF expert; Inflation targeting; NTF technique; monetary policy forecasting; FT management; policy analysis model
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Belarus: Technical Assistance Report-Monetary Policy Modeling
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Assistance (TA) report on the Republic of Belarus focuses on various aspects of monetary policy modeling. This TA mission was the fifth from series of quarterly IMF TA missions focused on the forecasting and analysis system capacity building. It was mainly aimed to simulate initial conditions and compile a quarterly projection model (QPM)-based forecast scenario as a part of a practical forecasting round at the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB) in March. Moreover, the mission worked with the modeling team to deepen its understanding of the QPM’s role in policy decision making and in internal communication. Adopting Inflation Targeting and increasing monetary policy effectiveness would require broad-based reforms as compressively outlined in the developed Road Map for Transitioning to Inflation Targeting. This medium-term TA project aims to primarily help the NBRB with medium-term inflation forecasting and policy analysis and related tools to effectively support policy making. The project composed of series of TA and training missions particularly focused on the preparation of forecasts and policy analyses, the medium-term forecasting and policy analysis model, and presentations of the forecasts and policy analysis.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; monetary policy; QPM; team; FPAS; QPM team; TA mission; forecast scenario; monetary policy transmission channels; monetary policy meeting; Communications in revenue administration; Inflation targeting; Monetary policy frameworks
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Belarus: Technical Assistance Report-Monetary Policy Modeling
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB) visited Minsk during for the seventh of the planned eight short-term technical assistance (TA) missions to help the NBRB enhance its modeling, forecasting and policy analysis capacity, and the forecasting and policy analysis system, sponsored by the Swedish International Development Agency. The NBRB is reforming its monetary policy framework in line with recommendations of past IMF TA missions and its Road Map for Transitioning to Inflation Targeting with the aim of eventually adopting inflation targeting (IT). Transitioning to IT would require, among other strengthening the monetary policy forecasting and analysis system (FPAS) and better integrating the core quarterly projection model (QPM) into the decision-making process. The mission was mainly aimed at helping with reviewing the initial conditions and compiling a QPM-based forecast as a part of the NBRB’s September forecasting round. The mission, in addition, worked on strengthening processes within the FPAS.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; monetary policy; QPM; Near-term forecast; FPAS; TA mission; QPM team; monetary policy meeting; forecast scenario; NBRB flagship publication; NTF expert; Inflation targeting
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Belarus
Technical Assistance Report-Monetary Policy Modeling
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

, Regular data update during the forecasting round. Short Term Prior to the next TA mission. Improving the NTF techniques , especially fiscal analyses and forecasting. Medium Term Remote work of the team with TA experts focusing on any new issues and the update of: data and NTF nowcast, IC and forecast scenario, forecast scenario presentation. Short Term Do the updating not only by management request but regularly. Boosting forecasting and policy analyzing capacity by: reviewing the QPM and its presentation to NBRB’s experts and management

Keywords:
ISCR; CR; monetary policy; QPM; team; FPAS; QPM team; TA mission; forecast scenario; monetary policy transmission channels; monetary policy meeting; Communications in revenue administration; Inflation targeting; Monetary policy frameworks; monetary policy forecasting; policy decision making; monetary policy guideline; policy transmission; policy formulation