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International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB) visited Minsk during for the seventh of the planned eight short-term technical assistance (TA) missions to help the NBRB enhance its modeling, forecasting and policy analysis capacity, and the forecasting and policy analysis system, sponsored by the Swedish International Development Agency. The NBRB is reforming its monetary policy framework in line with recommendations of past IMF TA missions and its Road Map for Transitioning to Inflation Targeting with the aim of eventually adopting inflation targeting (IT). Transitioning to IT would require, among other strengthening the monetary policy forecasting and analysis system (FPAS) and better integrating the core quarterly projection model (QPM) into the decision-making process. The mission was mainly aimed at helping with reviewing the initial conditions and compiling a QPM-based forecast as a part of the NBRB’s September forecasting round. The mission, in addition, worked on strengthening processes within the FPAS.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

should be taken prior to the next mission. More detailed description of the key recommendations is provided in section B Recommendations and Future Steps towards Further Enhancement of the FPAS. Table 1. Key Recommendations Action Timing 2 Prioritization 3 Implementation Responsibility Comments Scheduling monetary policy meetings for the next year, including the timing of the forecasting round. Short Term 2 NBRB Board MPEAD Management QPM team NTF experts Before end-2018 and before the schedule is publicly available

Kevin Clinton, Tibor Hlédik, Mr. Tomás Holub, Mr. Douglas Laxton, and Hou Wang

, and thus their perceived importance for the institution. The original forecast organization at the CNB in 2002-2003 was unfortunately not immune from this risk. Historically, the NTF experts and the modeling and projections team had been split into two divisions with two heads (“Real Economy Division” and “Economic Modeling Division”; Figure 6 ). This created tensions. These became apparent during the process of integrating the near-term and medium-term forecasts. For example, there could be forecast revisions unrelated to new pieces of information, but rather to

Kevin Clinton, Tibor Hlédik, Mr. Tomás Holub, Mr. Douglas Laxton, and Hou Wang
This paper describes the CNB’s experience implementing an inflation-forecast targeting (IFT) regime, and the building of a system for providing the economic information that policymakers need to implement IFT. The CNB’s experience has been very successful in establishing confidence in monetary policy in the Czech Republic and should provide useful guidance for other central banks that are considering adopting an IFT regime.