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International Monetary Fund

.31 IX. Safeguards Assessment The 2009 update assessment of the NBT noted considerable safeguard risks in key functions such as accounting, NIR compilation, the control environment, and the NBT’s organizational structure. Independent governance mechanisms were largely absent, in particular for overseeing audit mechanisms, and the internal audit function was weak. Subsequently, an NBT reform action plan was drawn up, and since 2009 several measures have been implemented, including six-monthly reviews of NIR data by an external auditor. One more such review is

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Growth has been strong and poverty has fallen in the past decade, though Tajikistan faces rising vulnerabilities. Growth is now softening and the external position has weakened dramatically as remittances have fallen with the sharp slowdown in Russia and earnings from cotton and aluminum exports have dropped due to global market developments. The exchange rate is under pressure and international reserves are thin. The fiscal position has been near balance in recent years and debt has been kept low, while fiscal space is becoming limited by rising debt service and contingent liabilities.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Tajikistan successfully completed a 3-year ECF-supported program in May 2012 and needs to continue with ambitious reforms. While growth is robust, it is non-inclusive, leading to large-scale outmigration that makes Tajikistan the most remittance-dependent country in the world. The country remains the poorest of the eight in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) and stands next to last among the seven with rankings in the ease of doing business. Reliance on commodity imports, a narrow export base, and low buffers leave the economy vulnerable. Weak macroeconomic policy frameworks restrict the authorities’ ability to dampen shocks. State-directed lending and investment displace market-financed activity and create fiscal risks. Presidential elections are scheduled for November.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Reported economic activity has been strong in 2018-19 and inflation has picked up. The monetary framework is being strengthened. The external position has deteriorated. The fiscal deficit has widened as revenues have declined. Reforms to place the loss-making energy sector on a sound financial footing are underway. The authorities’ development strategy relies on large infrastructure projects— Roghun dam and other large SOE-implemented projects — that need sizable external financing. The financial sector is recovering from the 2015-16 crisis, with a decline in nonperforming loans and improved profitability. The authorities are making efforts to strengthen bank supervision and regulation. However, two formerly-systemic banks remain insolvent and further reforms are needed to restore public confidence in banks.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

The last safeguards assessment was completed in 2010. It recommended to improve the NBT’s organizational structure, transparency, audit arrangements and accounting controls. Subsequently, an NBT reform action plan was drawn up, and since 2010 several measures have been implemented, including six-monthly reviews of NIR data by an external auditor during the 2009–12 ECF arrangement and the addition of non-executive members to the Board of Directors. The NBT financial statements continue to be audited in accordance with international standards and the results are

International Monetary Fund

of Republic of Tajikistan * NBT Reform Action Plan and Financial Sector Stability Action Plan * * Also included in Staff Report The policy of publication of staff reports and other documents allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund • Publication Services 700 19 th Street, N.W. • Washington, D.C. 20431 Telephone: (202) 623-7430 • Telefax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: publications@imf.org Internet: http://0-www-imf-org.library.svsu.edu International Monetary Fund

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

internal audit function was weak. Subsequently, an NBT reform action plan was drawn up, and since 2009 several measures have been implemented, including six-monthly reviews of NIR data by an external auditor and the addition of non-executive members to the Board of Directors. Audited financial statements are published on the NBT website, albeit with some delays. These delays, combined with limited capacity in the accounting area, can raise the risk of inadvertent misreporting. The internal audit of core functions was outsourced, while the NBT is strengthening its

International Monetary Fund

.31 IX. Safeguards Assessment The 2009 update assessment of the NBT noted considerable safeguard risks in key functions such as accounting, NIR compilation, the control environment, and the NBT’s organizational structure. Independent governance mechanisms were largely absent, in particular for overseeing audit mechanisms, and the internal audit function was weak. Subsequently, an NBT reform action plan was drawn up, and since 2009 several measures have been implemented, including six-monthly reviews of NIR data by an external auditor. One more such review is

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

.31 Financed by: MDRI Trust 69.31 Remaining HIPC resources -- Debt Relief by Facility (SDR Million) Eligible Debt Delivery Date GRA PRGT Total January, 2006 N/A 69.31 69.31 Safeguards Assessment The 2009 update assessment of the NBT noted considerable safeguard risks in key functions such as accounting, NIR compilation, the control environment, and the NBT’s organizational structure. Oversight of audit mechanisms was largely absent and the internal audit function was weak. Subsequently, an NBT reform action plan

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

the NBT noted considerable safeguard risks in key functions such as accounting, NIR compilation, the control environment, and the NBT’s organizational structure. Oversight of audit mechanisms was largely absent, and the internal audit function was weak. Subsequently, an NBT reform action plan was drawn up, and since 2009 several measures have been implemented, including six-monthly reviews of NIR data by an external auditor during the 2009–12 ECF arrangement and the addition of nonexecutive members to the Board of Directors. Audited financial statements are