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International Monetary Fund

mortality among young adults, the number of orphans in Namibia has also risen sharply and is expected to increase from 12 to 18 percent of the young population ages 0 to 17 by 2010. In response to the seriousness and magnitude of the epidemic, Namibia began to formulate its coordinated HIV/AIDS strategies in the early 1990s. In 2004, Namibia published its third strategic plan to fight HIV/AIDS (MTP III). This comprehensive effort showcased the depth and widespread nature of the problem, stressing that HIV/AIDS is a development issue and not just a public health issue. 2

International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, as well as its repercussions on fiscal policy of Namibia. The paper seeks to assess the macroeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS under a successful implementation of Medium-Term Plan III (MTP III) that would lower the prevalence rate to below its 2004 level. The paper also identifies the effect of HIV/AIDS on the real GDP growth rate over the medium term through a source of growth model that estimates the impact of HIV/AIDS on the factors of production.
International Monetary Fund

This Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, as well as its repercussions on fiscal policy of Namibia. The paper seeks to assess the macroeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS under a successful implementation of Medium-Term Plan III (MTP III) that would lower the prevalence rate to below its 2004 level. The paper also identifies the effect of HIV/AIDS on the real GDP growth rate over the medium term through a source of growth model that estimates the impact of HIV/AIDS on the factors of production.

International Monetary Fund

This Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, as well as its repercussions on fiscal policy of Namibia. The paper seeks to assess the macroeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS under a successful implementation of Medium-Term Plan III (MTP III) that would lower the prevalence rate to below its 2004 level. The paper also identifies the effect of HIV/AIDS on the real GDP growth rate over the medium term through a source of growth model that estimates the impact of HIV/AIDS on the factors of production.

International Monetary Fund

This Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, as well as its repercussions on fiscal policy of Namibia. The paper seeks to assess the macroeconomic impact of HIV/AIDS under a successful implementation of Medium-Term Plan III (MTP III) that would lower the prevalence rate to below its 2004 level. The paper also identifies the effect of HIV/AIDS on the real GDP growth rate over the medium term through a source of growth model that estimates the impact of HIV/AIDS on the factors of production.

International Monetary Fund

-mail: publications@imf.org • Internet: http://0-www-imf-org.library.svsu.edu Price: $15.00 a copy International Monetary Fund Washington, D.C . Front Matter Page INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND NAMIBIA Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix Prepared by Johannes Mueller (head), Patrick Akatu, Irene Yackovlev (all AFR), Koshy Mathai (FAD), and Manmohan Singh (ICM) Approved by African Department January 28, 2005 Contents I. The Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS in Namibia A. Introduction B. Targets and Outcome Indicators under MTP III C. The Growth

International Monetary Fund

U.S. Census Bureau (USCB, 2004 ) which has compiled population forecasts for the focus countries of the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), among them Namibia. 31 The assumptions underlying the USCB model do not explicitly incorporate the authorities’ efforts to combat HIV/AIDS as summarized in the “Third Medium-Term Plan (MTP III)”. The USCB projections can be interpreted as a scenario in which the implementation of MTP III largely fails. As a contrast, this chapter also uses demographic projections from the United Nations Populations Division

International Monetary Fund

potential benefits on school attendance. 32. The government’s HIV/AIDS strategy, the Third Medium-Term Plan (MTP III), has so far been successful in terms of treatment . 15,000 people are currently given ARV therapy and the objective to treat 25,000 by 2009 has been revised upward to above 50,000. However, there is a shortage of skilled staff (nurses, pharmacists, and doctors) and inadequate space in the health facilities, which leads to bottlenecks in treatment. Moreover, the treatment strategy must be complemented by substantive prevention measures to ensure that the

International Monetary Fund

expectancy dropped from 67 years in 1991 to 45 years in 2002, child mortality has remained high, and 60,000 children have been orphaned so far. The authorities’ strategy to combat HIV/AIDS (MTP III) appropriately identifies the pandemic as a developmental issue. It calls for extensive prevention and treatment through improved access to health care and some, although limited access to anti-retroviral therapy (see Box 4 on the fiscal costs of MTP III). A simple sources-of-growth model was used to gauge the impact of HIV/AIDS on growth. The model suggests that

International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper analyzes unemployment and education in Namibia. Using the Afrobarometer Project survey data, the paper develops some stylized facts about the Namibian labor market, focusing on the link between education, earnings, and unemployment. The paper finds that unemployment probabilities depend on the level of education. The paper also describes the main features of poverty in Namibia and assesses the appropriateness of current as well as potential policies to alleviate poverty and reduce income inequality over time.