of Forecast Performance Against MFDCharacteristics
1. Names of the Macro-Fiscal “Departments” of MOFs
2. Fiscal Rules and Fiscal Frameworks
3. Medium-Term Forecast Performance Analysis
4. Notes on the Database Prepared from this Paper
5. Kenya’s Statement of Fiscal Risks
This paper examines the institutional arrangements of the macro-fiscal function in 16 African countries. Most ministries of finance (MoFs) have established a macro-fiscal department or unit, but their functions, size, structure and outputs vary considerably. Based on a survey, we present data on staff size, functional scope and the forecasting performance of macro-fiscal departments and identify common challenges in the countries reviewed. Some MoFs perform many macro-fiscal functions, but actions of various kinds are needed to strengthen their macro-fiscal departments. This paper provides some guidance for policy-makers in the region for enhancing the quality and scope of macro-fiscal outputs.
the results from the forecast performance analysis and MFDcharacteristics. Subsequently it reviews the major challenges for performing macro-fiscal activities in the MoFs of the 16 countries, before discussing measures for strengthening the macro-fiscal function in the region.
Forecast performance and MFDcharacteristics
A panel regression of the average forecast errors and average absolute forecast errors for revenue ( Figures 6 and 7 ) against relevant survey results is presented in Table 5 . Notwithstanding the small size of the panel dataset and the