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International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Several MENAP oil exporters implemented sizable fiscal stimulus packages in 2009, which helped cushion the impact on the non-oil sector and on neighboring countries . Continuation of this policy, in tandem with improving external conditions, has led to an incipient recovery in 2009 and has brightened the outlook for 2010, when growth is projected to gather momentum. At slightly more than 4 percent, non-oil GDP growth in the coming years will remain below precrisis levels but will likely be more sustainable over the long run . Clouding this outlook are

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Sharp increases in oil prices, particularly after the beginning of the recent events in the region, have benefited the MENAP oil exporters’ fiscal and current account surpluses. Part of the increased oil revenues has been used to respond to social tensions. In managing the short-term uncertainties, oil exporters should not lose sight of their longer-term challenges: achieving strong and sustainable inclusive growth to provide employment for the rapidly growing labor force, especially for the youth; better fiscal management; and further development of the

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

The MENAP oil exporters were directly affected by the global financial crisis through a sharp drop in oil prices, a contraction in the global economy, and a sudden drying up of capital inflows. Although activity in the oil sector will likely drop by 3.5 percent in 2009, strong countercyclical macroeconomic policies have helped mitigate the impact of the crisis on the non-oil sector, which is projected to grow by 3.2 percent. Looking ahead, higher oil prices, a revival of global demand, and continued government spending will provide the basis for stronger growth

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) oil exporters continue to face an exceptionally challenging environment as low oil prices and conflicts continue to weigh on economic activity, fiscal and external balances, and the financial sector. Many have made progress in fiscal consolidation, yet sustained efforts will be required over the medium term to place public finances on a sound footing. Plans to diversify economies away from oil and create jobs for the rapidly growing populations have also been announced. Such economic transformation

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Lower global demand and domestic oil supply disruptions are set to reduce growth in MENAP oil exporters 1 this year, after several years of strong performance. These factors are expected to unwind in 2014, lifting economic activity back to the levels experienced in the recent past; however, the region is not saving enough of its oil windfall and, on current policies, will run an aggregate fiscal deficit beginning in 2016. Together with substantial oil revenue risks, this prospect underscores the need for countries to build or strengthen their fiscal and

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

At a Glance With the recovery in oil prices, MENAP oil exporters will experience visible improvements in fiscal and external balances during 2010–11. Non-oil activity is set to pick up, although more gradually, with lackluster private demand offset by supportive policies. In many countries, accommodative fiscal and monetary policies will continue to be appropriate over the coming year, but with a closer eye on emerging inflationary pressures. Beyond 2011, fiscal consolidation should be under way in virtually all countries to enable them to confront the

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Intensified conflicts in Iraq and Libya have led to a downward revision in the 2014 growth projections for the MENAP oil exporters by ¾ of a percentage point compared with the May 2014 Regional Economic Outlook Update. At 2½ percent, growth in the oil exporters is expected to edge up only slightly from last year, supported by recovery in Iran and continued solid growth in the GCC countries. Growth is expected to strengthen to about 4 percent next year, assuming that security improves and oil production in non-GCC countries, particularly Libya and Iraq