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Ms. Maria A Albino, Ms. Svetlana Cerovic, Mr. Francesco Grigoli, Mr. Juan C Flores, Mr. Javier Kapsoli, Mr. Haonan Qu, Mr. Yahia Said, Mr. Bahrom Shukurov, Mr. Martin Sommer, and Mr. SeokHyun Yoon

Determinants of Public Investment Efficiency Executive Summary Over the past decade, rising oil prices have translated into high levels of public investment in most MENA and CCA oil exporters (MCDOEs) . 2 , 3 This has prompted questions about the efficiency of public investment in generating growth and closing infrastructure gaps, as well as concerns about fiscal vulnerabilities. Given the inherent difficulties with measuring investment efficiency, this Staff Discussion Note uses several alternative methods to assess the efficiency of public investment and

Ms. Maria A Albino, Ms. Svetlana Cerovic, Mr. Francesco Grigoli, Mr. Juan C Flores, Mr. Javier Kapsoli, Mr. Haonan Qu, Mr. Yahia Said, Mr. Bahrom Shukurov, Mr. Martin Sommer, and Mr. SeokHyun Yoon
Over the past decade, rising oil prices have translated into high levels of public investment in most MENA and CCA oil exporters. This has prompted questions about the efficiency of public investment in generating growth and closing infrastructure gaps, as well as concerns about fiscal vulnerabilities. When public investment is inefficient, higher levels of spending may simply lead to larger budget deficits, without sufficiency increasing the quantity or quality of public infrastructure in support of economic growth. This paper examines the efficiency of public investment in the MENA and CCA oil exporters using several techniques, including a novel application of the efficiency frontier analysis, estimates of unit investment costs, and assessments of public investment processes. The analysis confirms that these oil exporters have substantial room to improve public investment efficiency. Reforms in the public financial and investment management systems are needed to achieve this objective.
Ms. Maria A Albino, Ms. Svetlana Cerovic, Mr. Francesco Grigoli, Mr. Juan C Flores, Mr. Javier Kapsoli, Mr. Haonan Qu, Mr. Yahia Said, Mr. Bahrom Shukurov, Mr. Martin Sommer, and Mr. SeokHyun Yoon

challenges, most of the analytical results in this paper are presented by country groups. Several approaches to measuring public investment efficiency have been used in previous studies . The approaches include estimates of how much of a dollar of public investment actually translates into public capital ( Pritchett, 2000 ); estimates of the unit cost of large infrastructure projects in Europe and Central Asia, covering two MCDOEs ( Alexeeva and others, 2011 ); and public sector performance indicators, with a focus on spending efficiency in new European Union member

Ms. Maria A Albino, Ms. Svetlana Cerovic, Mr. Francesco Grigoli, Mr. Juan C Flores, Mr. Javier Kapsoli, Mr. Haonan Qu, Mr. Yahia Said, Mr. Bahrom Shukurov, Mr. Martin Sommer, and Mr. SeokHyun Yoon
Over the past decade, rising oil prices have translated into high levels of public investment in most MENA and CCA oil exporters. This has prompted questions about the efficiency of public investment in generating growth and closing infrastructure gaps, as well as concerns about fiscal vulnerabilities. When public investment is inefficient, higher levels of spending may simply lead to larger budget deficits, without sufficiency increasing the quantity or quality of public infrastructure in support of economic growth. This paper examines the efficiency of public investment in the MENA and CCA oil exporters using several techniques, including a novel application of the efficiency frontier analysis, estimates of unit investment costs, and assessments of public investment processes. The analysis confirms that these oil exporters have substantial room to improve public investment efficiency. Reforms in the public financial and investment management systems are needed to achieve this objective.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

oil exporter have net capital inflows. Resilient capital inflows to oil importers ensured that net capital flows have been consistently positive and higher, as a share of GDP, compared to other emerging market economies. 1 Figure 4.1. Capital Flows Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff calculations. Note: MCD = Middle East and Central Asia; MCDOE = MCD oil-exporting countries; MCDOI = MCD oil-importing countries; other EM = other emerging market economies excluding MCD emerging market economies. Gross capital inflows to the MENAP and the CCA

International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Stabilization Fund, was established in 2004, to be built over time with “above-normal” fiscal energy revenues. Its assets reached about 20 percent of GDP in September 2014 (external reserves are an additional 35 percent of GDP). 35 While there have been no legally binding fiscal rules, various governments have made pledges regarding overall (or non-energy) balances. Annex 1.3. Public Investment in Oil-Producing Countries of the Middle East 36 During the past decade, drawing on oil revenues, most oil-producing countries of the Middle East and Central Asia (MCDOE) have

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Capital Expenditure, 2001-12 1/ (In percent of GDP) Source: IMF WEO database and staff calculations 1/ Refers to general government and excludes oil-relared investment of public companies. 2/ TKM refers to state budget. 3/ Include countries where oil exports share in total exports is above 15 percent. 4/ Emerging markets in SPR definition excluding China and MCDOE. 5. While oil prices and revenues recovered in the aftermath of the global economic crisis, Qatar, as other oil exporters in the region reduced public capital expenditures . Capital

International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper assesses efficiency of Qatar public investment. It discusses the trends in public capital spending and the rationale for improving public investment efficiency. The paper outlines three alternative methods for analyzing efficiency, and presents the main results. The results suggest that the efficiency of Qatar public investment spending is broadly comparable to GCC peers, but could be improved further. It is also concluded that strengthening fiscal institutions, particularly with an integrated public investment management process and a medium-term fiscal policy framework, is the key for improving public investment efficiency in Qatar.
Mr. Ahmed I Al-Darwish, Naif Alghaith, Mr. Alberto Behar, Mr. Tim Callen, Mr. Pragyan Deb, Mr. Amgad Hegazy, Padamja Khandelwal, Ms. Malika Pant, and Mr. Haonan Qu
Saudi Arabia: Tackling Emerging Economic Challenges to Sustain Strong Growth