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Mr. Nalin M. Kishor, Mr. Muthukumara Mani, and Mr. Luis F. Constantino

Front Matter Page Fiscal Affairs Department Authorized for distribution by Howell H. Zee Contents I. Introduction II. The Importance of Forests in Costa Rica III. Economy wide Impacts of Removing the LEB A. Economywide Net Surplus as a Result of Removing the LEB B. Estimating the Environmental (Non-timber) Costs and Benefits IV. Summary and Conclusions References Tables 1. Annual Welfare Changes from Removal of the LEB 2. Annual Economic and Environmental Costs and Benefits to Removing a LEB Figure 1. Gains from Removing

Mr. Nalin M. Kishor, Mr. Muthukumara Mani, and Mr. Luis F. Constantino

deforestation will decrease because of the reduction in timber exports. In addition, job creation, capturing more value-added domestically, and improving the scale efficiency of domestic processing are also often given as reasons for such restrictions. Many developing countries thus look to timber trade restrictions as a means of achieving economic, environmental, and social objectives. Several justifications are offered why a timber export tax and, its most extreme form—a log export ban (LEB) should be implemented. Industrial processing of natural resources has long been

Mr. Nalin M. Kishor, Mr. Muthukumara Mani, and Mr. Luis F. Constantino
An increasing number of tropical timber producing nations have enacted bans on export of logs. Proponents argue that a log export ban is a second-best policy tool for addressing environmental externalities; it also creates more jobs and improves scale efficiencies domestically. Theoretical arguments suggest that log export bans are largely incapable of achieving their objectives. However, little quantitative evidence exists. The authors maintain that eliminating log export bans in Costa Rica could generate economic gains as high as $14 million annually in addition to the environmental benefits.
Mr. Fabio Comelli
We estimate sovereign bond spreads of 28 emerging economies over the period January 1998-December 2011 and test the ability of the model in generating accurate in-sample predictions for emerging economies bond spreads. The impact and significance of country-specific and global explanatory variables on bond spreads varies across regions, as well as economic periods. During crisis times, good macroeconomic fundamentals are helpful in containing bond spreads, but less than in non-crisis times, possibly reflecting the impact of extra-economic forces on bond spreads when a financial crisis occurs. For some emerging economies, in-sample predictions of the monthly changes in bond spreads obtained with rolling regression routines are significantly more accurate than forecasts obtained with a random walk. Rolling regression-based bond spread predictions appear to convey more information than those obtained with a linear prediction method. By contrast, bond spreads forecasts obtained with a linear prediction method are less accurate than those obtained with random guessing.
International Monetary Fund

This paper reviews Azerbaijan’s State Program on Poverty Reduction and Economic Development 2003–2005 (SPPRED). The Poverty Reduction Program in Azerbaijan has attracted an extensive and high degree of interest, matching its complexity and scope. The main objective of the SPPRED is to define and measure poverty in Azerbaijan using a variety of indicators, identify the causes of poverty, and develop a strategy to address these causes. The role of a participatory dimension in the SPPRED is to ensure a comprehensive and genuine process of consultation with the civil society.