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Mr. Brad J. McDonald, Rob Gregory, and Ms. Katrin Elborgh-Woytek

eligible to participate, but countries need to register. The origin rules require that domestic value added be at least 30 percent of the price and a change of 4-digit tariff category. The final process of manufacture must also be performed in the exporting country. Cumulation across LDC beneficiaries is not allowed. Brazil announced in 2008 its intention to begin offering DFQF access. The Brazilian authorities expect that 80 percent of tariff lines will be covered initially, expanding subsequently to 100 percent. The Republic of Korea introduced LDC preferences in

Mr. Brad J. McDonald, Rob Gregory, and Ms. Katrin Elborgh-Woytek
The actions proposed here focus on trade integration, substantially increasing exports of the poorest countries and helping them to meet the Millennium Development Goals. As the foundation for these ambitions, we emphasize the role of a secure, open global trading environment—strengthened further by concluding the WTO Doha Round. From this base, the poorest countries also need better trade preferences from the advanced and major emerging market countries (EMs). Building the capacity to take advantage of trade opportunities will require support from the international community and policy reforms—such as to trade regimes—by the poorest countries themselves. The Fifteen Point Action Plan proposed here could increase annual exports of the least-developed countries (LDCs) by $10 billion or more, with additional benefits for other Low-Income Countries (LICs).
Mr. Brad J. McDonald, Rob Gregory, and Ms. Katrin Elborgh-Woytek
Mary Amiti and Mr. John Romalis

scheme data because many tariff lines are not eligible for preferences under the GSP, and in many cases countries do not apply for preferences they are entitled to and end up paying the MFN rate because of complex rules governing the use of preferences. Product coverage, defined as the ratio of imports that were eligible to enter under the GSP to total imports, was only 44 percent for LDC beneficiaries of the U.S. GSP scheme (dutiable imports in 2002 were $6.7 billion, of which $2.9 billion were covered by the GSP scheme). 9 Within this low product coverage

Mr. John Romalis and Mary Amiti

the size of preference erosion as many tariff lines are not eligible for preferences under the GSP, and in many cases countries do not apply for preferences they are entitled to and end up paying the MFN rate because of complex rules governing the use of preferences. Product coverage, defined as the ratio of imports that were eligible to enter under the GSP to total imports, was only 44 percent for LDC beneficiaries of the United States’ GSP scheme (dutiable imports in 2002 were $6.7 billion, of which $2.9 billion were covered by the GSP scheme). 5 Within this low

Mr. John Romalis and Mary Amiti
This paper assesses the effects of reducing tariffs under the Doha Round on market access for developing countries. It shows that for many developing countries, actual preferential access is less generous than it appears because of low product coverage or complex rules of origin. Thus lowering tariffs under the multilateral system is likely to lead to a net increase in market access for many developing countries, with gains in market access offsetting losses from preference erosion. Furthermore, comparing various tariff-cutting proposals, the research shows that the largest gains in market access are generated by higher tariff cuts in agriculture.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Vol. 54, No. 2 includes three notable contributions from the Seventh Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference (ARC) hosted by the IMF in November 2006. Its lead paper, by Olivier Blanchard of Harvard University, is the 2006 Mundell-Fleming Lecture (delivered at the ARC), which analyzes current-account deficits in the advanced economies. Other papers in this issue look at the relationship between international financial integration and the real economy. Other papers discuss whether (or not): i) the next capital account crisis can be predicted; ii) accepted definitions of debt crises are adequate; iii) the Doha Round of trade talks (if they are ever successfully completed) will lead to preference erosion; and finally iv) there is room for political opportunism in countries deciding between money-based or exchange-rate-based stabilization programs.