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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

.2 Deposits of the private sector (percent change) 9.3 15.6 10.9 9.3 9.0 8.2 7.2 7.0 6.8 Regulatory capital to risk weighted assets 17.0 15.9 16.5 … … … … … … Memorandum items : GDP (millions of euros) 6,672 7,056 6,772 7,493 8,049 8,571 9,076 9,569 10,072 Real GDP growth per capita 3.6 5.6 -5.7 7.1 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.1 Sources: Kosovo authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections. 1/ 2021 as of Q2 2021. 2/ The “fiscal rule” caps

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Kosovo has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite policy support, economic activity is estimated to have fallen 6 percent in 2020 on account of the combined effect of strict domestic containment measures and international travel restrictions. The fiscal deficit increased to 7.7 percent of GDP, given the large fall in tax revenues and the implementation of mitigation and recovery measures of 4.2 percent of GDP. The current account deficit is estimated to have increased to 7.5 percent of GDP mainly due to a large decline in diaspora-related inflows, most notably in tourism. Gross international reserves declined but remain adequate in part due to the purchase under the IMF’s Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) in April 2020 and the use of other external financing. Banks have weathered the recession well to date, and the high pre-COVID19 liquidity levels and ample capital buffers bode well for the system’s stability.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

lending −6 −6 Primary balance −163 −163 Primary balance net of PAK −155 −155 Interest income, net −18 −18 Overall balance −181 −181 Financing 181 181 Foreign financing −5 7 Domestic financing 186 174 Bank balance (prog.; − = increase) −220 −222 Financing gap 0 0 Sources: Kosovo authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

Rakia Moalla-Fetini, Mr. Shehadah Hussein, Mr. Heikki Hatanpaa, and Natasha Koliadina

Secretary-General (SRSG) retains the final authority “to set the financial and policy parameters for, and to approve” the budget. 1 Figure III.1. Consolidated General Government: Revenues, Expenditures, and Cash Balances, 2000–03 (In millions of euros) Source: Kosovo authorities. Budgeting on a commitment basis, which served Kosovo well initially, is the main reason for the lack of progress in elaborating a fiscal strategy. Right after the end of the conflict, annual balanced budgets were built on extremely conservative revenue projections, and, to guard

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

On behalf of the Kosovo authorities, we would like to thank staff for the excellent report on the first review under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) and for the constructive dialogue and valuable advice during the recent missions to Pristina. The authorities appreciate the quality of engagement with Fund staff, which has been tremendously beneficial, and express their appreciation to Fund management and the Executive Board for their continued support. The authorities broadly agree with staff’s assessment outlined in the report. In recent weeks, the

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

to risk weighted assets 6/ 18.1 17.0 15.9 16.7 … … … … … Memorandum items: GDP (millions of euros) 6,414 6,726 7,104 6,817 7,101 7,606 8,051 8,533 9,027 Real GDP growth per capita 3.4 4.1 4.5 -6.4 4.1 5.1 3.6 3.6 3.6 Sources: Kosovo authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections. 1/ World Bank’s Poverty headcount ratio at US$3.20 a day (2011 PPP). 2/ 2020 as of Q3 2020. 3/ The Fiscal rule excludes capital investment financed by

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

benefits from restraining public wage growth as observed in Kosovo would have more than compensated. Actual vs. simulated increases of the public wage bill under alternative rules-based mechanisms Source: Kosovo authorities; and IMF staff estimates. 16. At the same time, they felt the fiscal rule does not give enough recognition to Kosovo’s development needs . The authorities expressed their strong commitment to macro-fiscal stability, pointing to the freeze in wages at 2014 levels and the recent increase in excise taxes. More generally, they committed to

International Monetary Fund

,649 4,966 5,275 GDP per capita (euros) 2,323 2,325 2,468 2,070 2,682 2,822 2,953 GNDI per capita (euros) 2,749 2,650 2,829 2,376 3,079 3,224 3,386 Population (thousands) 7/ 1,658 1,683 1,708 2,256 1,734 1,760 1,786 Sources: Kosovo authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections. 1/ Projections assume that grants from the EC and IDA will be received in 2011–14. 2/ Based on World Bank estimates. 3/ Savings-investment balance of entire economy, including donor sector. 4

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Population (thousands) 1815 1842 1838 1866 1894 1922 1951 1980 2010 2040 Sources: Kosovo authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections. 1/ Includes capital spending by publicly-owned enterprises via onlending from the general government. 2/ Total foreign assistance excluding capital transfers. 3/ Kosovo neither recognizes nor services nor tracks this debt. Table 2. Kosovo: Consolidated Government Budget, 2013–22 1/ (Excluding donor designated grants; millions of euros; cumulative from the

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper discusses Kosovo’s Second and Third Reviews under the Stand-by Arrangement, and Request for Program Extension. Economic performance remains positive, with growth estimated at 3.5 percent in 2016 and projected at similar levels in 2017. Fiscal deficits remain contained, with strong tax revenues limiting the impact from rising pensions for war veterans. All performance criteria and indicative targets for December 2015 and June 2016 were met with comfortable margins. Given this progress, the IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for the completion of the second and third reviews.