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Martin Iseringhausen, Ms. Mwanza Nkusu, and Wellian Wiranto
This paper studies the determinants of repeated use of Fund-supported programs in a large sample covering virtually all General Resources Account (GRA) arrangements that were approved between 1952 and 2012. Generally, the revolving nature of the IMF’s resources calls for the temporary sup-port of member countries to address balance of payments problems while repeated use has often been viewed as program failure. First, using probit models we show that a small number of country-specific variables such as growth, the current account balance, the international reserves position, and the institutional framework play a significant role in explaining repeated use. Second, we discuss the role of IMF-specific and program-specific variables and find evidence that a country’s track record with the Fund is a good predictor of repeated use. Finally, we conduct an out-of-sample forecasting exer-cise. While our approach has predictive power for repeated use, exact forecasting remains challenging. From a policy perspective, the results could prove useful to assess the risk IMF programs pose to the revolving nature of the Fund’s financial resources.
Martin Iseringhausen, Ms. Mwanza Nkusu, and Wellian Wiranto

factors that correlate with the occurrence of arrears. Regarding the duration of protracted arrears, they conclude that IMF credit outstanding, real GDP growth, the share of exports to advanced economies, and episodes of civil unrest are correlated with how long a country remains in arrears. III Data Our sample of IMF-supported programs consists of virtually all GRA arrangements that started between January 1952 and January 2012. 4 Specifically, the dataset contains 890 GRA-supported programs: 700 Stand-By Arrangements (SBA), 81 Extended Fund Facilities (EFF