Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Type

Refine By Countries

Refine By Topic

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Search Results

You are looking at 1 - 2 of 2 items for :

  • "IMF-supported programs consist" x
Clear All
Cover IMF Working Papers
Repeated Use of IMF-Supported Programs: Determinants and Forecasting
Martin Iseringhausen, Ms. Mwanza Nkusu, and Wellian Wiranto
This paper studies the determinants of repeated use of Fund-supported programs in a large sample covering virtually all General Resources Account (GRA) arrangements that were approved between 1952 and 2012. Generally, the revolving nature of the IMF’s resources calls for the temporary sup-port of member countries to address balance of payments problems while repeated use has often been viewed as program failure. First, using probit models we show that a small number of country-specific variables such as growth, the current account balance, the international reserves position, and the institutional framework play a significant role in explaining repeated use. Second, we discuss the role of IMF-specific and program-specific variables and find evidence that a country’s track record with the Fund is a good predictor of repeated use. Finally, we conduct an out-of-sample forecasting exer-cise. While our approach has predictive power for repeated use, exact forecasting remains challenging. From a policy perspective, the results could prove useful to assess the risk IMF programs pose to the revolving nature of the Fund’s financial resources.
Keywords:
WP; explanatory variable; country; regime; IMF lending; Fund resources; GRA arrangements; program success; IMF quota; IMF support; adjustment program; lending practice; IMF arrangement; successor program; IMF-supported adjustment program; program period; IMF-supported programs consist; program failure; quota share; Current account balance; Exchange rate arrangements; Arrears; International reserves; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Repeated Use of IMF-Supported Programs: Determinants and Forecasting
Martin Iseringhausen, Ms. Mwanza Nkusu, and Wellian Wiranto

factors that correlate with the occurrence of arrears. Regarding the duration of protracted arrears, they conclude that IMF credit outstanding, real GDP growth, the share of exports to advanced economies, and episodes of civil unrest are correlated with how long a country remains in arrears. III Data Our sample of IMF-supported programs consists of virtually all GRA arrangements that started between January 1952 and January 2012. 4 Specifically, the dataset contains 890 GRA-supported programs: 700 Stand-By Arrangements (SBA), 81 Extended Fund Facilities (EFF

Keywords:
WP; explanatory variable; country; regime