, established capacity is key to meeting heightened demand for foresight.
Foresight can inform and improve the work of IMF staff and the broader economics profession (see Online Annex 9 for a comparison of foresight methods). Best practice is for strategic foresight to be an iterative process, with senior managers and a core of users seeing increasing returns through repeated exercises. Strategic foresight tools are an important addition to the IMFriskpreparednessframework and there is room to use them more in surveillance and in lending (for example, as a tool to help
This note explains the value of strategic foresight and provides implementation advice based on the IMF’s experience with scenario planning and policy gaming. Section II provides an overview of strategic foresight and some of its tools. Scenario planning and policy gaming have been the Fund’s main foresight techniques so far, though other tools have been complementary. Accordingly, section III focuses on the scenario planning by illustrating applications before detailing the methods we have been using, while section IV describes policy gaming including the matrix policy gaming approach with which we have experimented so far. Section V summarizes the key points. In so doing, the note extends an invitation to those in the economics and finance fields (e.g., researchers, policymakers) to incorporate strategic foresight in their analysis and decision making.