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Mr. Atish R. Ghosh, Mr. Juan Zalduendo, Ms. Manuela Goretti, Mr. Bikas Joshi, and Mr. Alun H. Thomas
This paper presents two approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. The two approaches-the time series behavior of credit outstanding and a two-stage program selection and access model-yield the same conclusion: the use of IMF resources is likely to decline sharply. Specifically, credit outstanding is projected to decline from an average of SDR 50 billion over 2000?05 to SDR 8 billion over 2006?10. Stochastic simulations suggest that it is unlikely to be much higher. These results are based on WEO projections with a correction for historically-observed over-optimistic biases. Alternative scenarios assuming a weaker economic performance or a less benign global environment do not alter these results.
Mr. Atish R. Ghosh, Mr. Juan Zalduendo, Ms. Manuela Goretti, Mr. Bikas Joshi, and Mr. Alun H. Thomas

Influence the Demand for IMF Resource? ” IMF Working Paper No. 06/239 ( Washington : International Monetary Fund ). Estrella , Arturo , 1998 , “ A New Measure of Fit for Equations with Dichotomous Dependent Variables ,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics , Vol. 16 , No. 2 , pp. 198 – 205 . Evrensel , Ayse , 2005 , “ IMF Programmes in Emerging Countries ,” Comparative Economic Studies , Vol. 47 , pp 4 – 22 . Filardo , Andrew and Stephen Gordon , 1998 , “ Business Cycle Durations ,” Journal of Econometrics , Vol. 85 , pp. 99

Mr. Abbas Mirakhor and Mr. Iqbal Mehdi Zaidi
This paper attempts to set out the principal issues that need to be resolved in formulating a proposal for quotas and voice reform in the IMF that could command broad support. Following John Rawls, we argue that "justice is the first virtue of social institutions," and we use his theory of justice to provide a method for understanding what should be the case, in the context of voice and voting shares, before international institutions, such as the IMF, are to be justifiable to their members. The implementation of this process suggests, among other things, that a major revision of the quota formulas is long overdue, and leaving this unaddressed raises serious questions regarding the IMF's governance which could develop into a core mission risk and jeopardize the relevance of the institution.
Ms. Uma Ramakrishnan and Mr. Juan Zalduendo
This paper examines the role of IMF-supported programs in crisis prevention; specifically, whether, conditional on an episode of intense market pressures, IMF financial support helps prevent a capital account crisis from developing and, if so, through what channels. In doing so, the paper distinguishes between the seal of approval inherent in IMF support and its financing, evaluates the interaction of IMF support with economic policies, and assesses whether IMF financing has a different impact on the likelihood of a crisis than other forms of liquidity. The main result is that IMF financing helps prevent crises through the liquidity provided (i.e., money matters). However, since the effect holds even after controlling for (gross) foreign exchange reserves, stronger policies and the seal of approval under an IMFsupported program must also play a role. Finally, the results suggest that IMF financing as a crisis prevention tool is most effective for an intermediate range of economic fundamentals.