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Mr. Hamid R Davoodi, Mr. Benedict J. Clements, Mr. Jerald A Schiff, and Peter Debaere

, neighbor’s ratio of military spending to GDP, and IMF program dummy. 15 Results are shown in Table 2 . Sargan’s test shows that the null hypothesis of the validity of instruments (for example, their exogeneity) is not rejected at the 1 or 5 percent level. The easing of international tensions is associated with reductions in military spending. 16 The estimated coefficients on the Doomsday Clock and number of nuclear explosions are statistically significant at the 5 percent and 1 percent level, respectively. Military spending is more responsive to the nuclear explosion

Yasemin Bal Gunduz and Masyita Crystallin

in our IMF program dummy used in the second stage for the PSM analysis. 28 Table 8 presents the results. Table 8. Robustness Checks: IMF-Supported Programs including Extended Credit Facility Variables (first-differenced) All LICs PS<0.3 0.3<PS<0.7 PS>0.7 Excluding Debt Relief Gross disbursement 0.724*** (0.280) 1,149 0.358 (0.333) 627 0.886* (0.525) 209 1.185 (0.808) 313 Net disbursement 0.121 (0.572) 1,149 −0.575 (0.818) 627 1.069 (0.729) 209 0.773 (1.269) 313 Untied ODA

Soojin Moon and Mr. Ales Bulir
This paper investigates fiscal developments in 112 countries during the 1990s. It finds that, while the overall fiscal balance improved in most of them, the composition of this improvement differed. In nonprogram countries, revenues increased modestly and expenditure declined sharply, while in program countries both revenue and expenditure declined. However, in countries with programs that included structural conditions the adjustment was effected primarily through sharp expenditure compression. We did not find evidence of a statistically significant impact of IMF conditionality. Morever, fiscal improvements are strongly influenced by cyclical factors
Mr. Christian Mumssen, Yasemin Bal Gunduz, Mr. Christian H Ebeke, and Ms. Linda Kaltani
This paper studies the short and longer-term impact of IMF engagement in Low-Income Countries (LICs) over nearly three decades. In contrast to earlier studies, we focus on a sample composed exclusively of LICs and disentangle the different effects of IMF longer-term engagement and short-term financing using a propensity score matching approach to control for selection bias. Our results indicate that longer-term IMF support (at least five years of program engagement per decade) helped LICs sustain economic growth and boost resilience by building fiscal buffers. Interestingly, the size of IMF financing has no significant impact on economic growth, possibly pointing to the prominent role of IMF policy advice and institutional capacity building in the context of longer-term engagement. We also present evidence that the short-term IMF engagement through augmentations of existing programs or short-term and emergency facilities is positively associated with a wide range of macroeconomic outcomes. Notably, the IMF financial support has the greatest impact on short-term growth when LICs are faced with substantial macroeconomic imbalances or exogenous shocks.
Ms. Susan M Schadler, Mr. Louis Dicks-Mireaux, and Mr. Mauro Mecagni

Reaction Function Annex Tables 1. Probit Model of Nonprogram Status Appendix Table 1. Countries in the Sample Charts 1. Recursive Point Estimates and Confidence Intervals for IMF Program Dummy Variable 2. Recursive Point Estimates and Confidence Intervals for IMF Program Dummy Variable 3. Recursive Point Estimates and Confidence Intervals for IMF Program Dummy Variable References Summary A number of different questions and methodologies can be used to evaluate Fund-supported programs. This paper seeks to answer one of these