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International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2019 Article IV Consultation highlights that while more moderate than in the past, gaming and tourism revenue in Macao Special Administrative Region picked up as the economy returned to expansion since mid-2016. Progress with diversification towards mass-gaming and nongaming tourism, together with the continued China gaming monopoly, are expected to deliver growth of around 4 percent in the medium term. Risks are tilted to the downside, mainly emanating from Mainland China. Prudent macroeconomic policies and high reserves provide strong buffers against shocks. In addition to supporting diversification, fulfilling social needs, and maintaining macroeconomic stability, the policies priorities explained in the report will reduce external imbalances. The report also discusses that the current housing macroprudential stance and related fiscal measures appear broadly appropriate. A broader set of policies are advised to support housing affordability, where continued efforts to boost housing supply will be key.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

services for implementing the Belt and Road Initiative and help build Macao SAR into a financial service platform for commercial and trade cooperation between China and PSCs. The “Outline Development Plan for Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area” (GBA plan) was unveiled in mid-February 2019, which would offer huge opportunities for Macao SAR to broaden its development space and diversify its economy through regional cooperation. The authorities see large potential gains for Macao SAR as the GBA would expand the demand base for Macao SAR’s economic diversification

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

grow by 15.5 percent in 2022 driven by the gradual return of foreign tourists and the recovery of domestic demand. Boosted by increasing investment linked to the issuance of new gaming concessions and further integration with the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA), growth is expected to accelerate to 23 percent in 2023 before gradually converging to its long-term potential of around 3.5 percent over the medium term. Headline inflation is projected to accelerate in 2022 and stabilize at around 2.5 percent over the medium term. In the absence of rapid

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Macao SAR’s recovery is expected to continue in 2022, but it will take several years before the economy returns to its pre-crisis level. Although strong fiscal support and the financial strength of Macao SAR’s casino groups cushioned employment and consumption, the sharp contraction in activity exposed Macao SAR’s vulnerability to external forces affecting the inflow of tourists. Short-term risks to the outlook include a re-intensification of the COVID-19 pandemic and an increase in Macao SAR’s financial sector stress. The heavy impact of the pandemic on Macao SAR’s growth highlights the need to diversify the economy beyond the gaming industry. The high exposure to climate-related shocks poses long-term concerns.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

.5–8.5 percent of GDP ( Appendix I ). Macao SAR’s persistent savings-investment gap is, in part, driven by high precautionary savings and subdued investments. 8. The recovery is expected to continue . GDP is projected to grow by 15.5 percent in 2022 driven by a recovery in domestic demand and the gradual return of foreign tourists. Boosted by increased investments, owing to the issuance of new gaming concessions, and further integration with the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA), growth is expected to accelerate to 23 percent in 2023 before gradually

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

relevant departments issued the best practice case of the construction of Beijing national comprehensive demonstration zone for the expansion and opening up of the service industry. Sep-21 Implemented PBC will promote the full implementation of pre-access national treatment plus negative list management system. ( link ) Sep-21 Implementation in progress CPC and State Council vigorously promote the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. ( link ) Sep-21 Implementation in progress PBC decided to carry out southbound

International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
China’s recovery is well advanced—but it lacks balance and momentum has slowed, reflecting the rapid withdrawal of fiscal support, lagging consumption amid recurrent COVID-19 outbreaks despite a successful vaccination campaign, and slowing real estate investment following policy efforts to reduce leverage in the property sector. Regulatory measures targeting the technology sector, intended to enhance competition, consumer privacy, and data governance, have increased policy uncertainty. China’s climate strategy has begun to take shape with the release of detailed action plans. Productivity growth is declining as decoupling pressures are increasing, while a stalling of key structural reforms and rebalancing are delaying the transition to “high-quality”—balanced, inclusive and green—growth.