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International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department

Abstract

A recovery is underway, but the economic fallout from the global pandemic could be with us for years to come. With the crisis exacerbating prepandemic vulnerabilities, country prospects are diverging. Nearly half of emerging market and developing economies and some middle-income countries are now at risk of falling further behind, undoing much of the progress made toward achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

Mr. Ayhan Kose and Mr. Marco Terrones

different perspective: they claim that the weak recovery in advanced economies is a reflection of poorly designed macroeconomic policies. These policies led to rising public debt and increased uncertainty and expanded the boundaries of regulatory measures that weigh on growth. 2 As a result, the investment climate has deteriorated, undercutting new projects and hampering employment growth. Some have also been very critical of expansionary monetary policies implemented by the Federal Reserve. 3 Understanding the Great Divergence The latest global recovery has

Ms. Gita Gopinath

help workers who have borne the brunt of the pandemic. These actions will not just alleviate the economic hardship on displaced workers, they will limit the potential for long-lasting earning and productivity scars and the higher mortality associated with job loss. The world has taken a major step toward ending the worst crisis in a century with multiple vaccines developed in record time to fight COVID-19. It will take an even greater combined push of the scientific and medical community, governments, and multilateral institutions to avert a great divergence in