Search Results

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 171 items for :

  • "GDP growth distribution" x
Clear All
Mr. Tobias Adrian, Mr. Dong He, Nellie Liang, and Mr. Fabio M Natalucci

financial stability arising from financial conditions. 3 It captures downside risks to GDP growth, which is especially useful when financial conditions affect different parts of the distribution in different ways. Specifically, GaR is defined as a low percentile of the conditional GDP growth distribution; the lower 5th percentile of the distribution is chosen here, though other percentiles are possible. That is, a GaR value indicates that there is a 5 percent probability that forecast growth will be lower than that value. GaR was introduced in the GFSR in April 2017, and

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses a growth-at-risk (GaR) model which is used to compute a distribution of expected GDP growth for Benin. The model predicts growth rates of ~6.7 percent for 2019 and a range of 6.4–6.8 percent in the medium-term (depending on the specification). Risks to future growth are assessed to be tilted to the downside. 2019 GDP growth is estimated around 6.7 percent, on average, across several specifications. The model considers external factors (world trade, global financial conditions, trade policy uncertainty, and US consumer sentiment), country-specific exposures to external factors (commodity terms of trade and trade-partner growth), and domestic factors (domestic financial conditions, fiscal policy, and the exchange rate). The analysis reveals that growth projections estimated both for the median and mode are slightly higher conditioned on 2018 data, yet when expectations about 2019 are considered using World Economic Outlook projections they fall. Overall, risks seem to be tilted to the downside. Medium term growth is estimated at between 6.4 and 6.8 percent. Risks to growth remain tilted to the downside, yet less skewed than in the short term.