Search Results

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 87 items for :

  • "GDP correlation" x
Clear All
Kei-Mu Yi and Mr. Ayhan Kose
Recent empirical research finds that pairs of countries with stronger trade linkages tend to have more highly correlated business cycles. We assess whether the standard international business cycle framework can replicate this intuitive result. We employ a three-country model with transportation costs. We simulate the effects of increased goods market integration under two asset market structures, complete markets and international financial autarky. Our main finding is that under both asset market structures the model can generate stronger correlations for pairs of countries that trade more, but the increased correlation falls far short of the empirical findings. Even when we control for the fact that most country-pairs are small with respect to the rest of the world, the model continues to fall short. We also conduct additional simulations that allow for increased trade with the third country or increased TFP shock comovement to affect the country pair's business cycle comovement. These simulations are helpful in highlighting channels that could narrow the gap between the empirical findings and the predictions of the model.
Mr. Christian Thimann

over 1996–2004 Q1) Sources: Eurostat, national sources, and author’s calculations. The disadvantage of using GDP correlation to capture cycle synchrony is that even after long-term trend adjustment, the coefficients may be biased owing to technical correlation. In particular, the correlation of the Central European economies with the euro area may reflect similar weather conditions and calendar factors. A standard way of avoiding the problem is by using filters to extract the short-term GDP trends (through moving averages or medians). However, the available

Hossein Samiei and Mr. Zenon Kontolemis

Error-Correction Model 5. Simulations 6. Cross-Country GDP Correlations Based on Simulations Figures 1. GDP 2. Aggregate GDP 3. Simulations: GDP Growth and the Role of Monetary Conditions 4. Simulations: Interest Rate and GDP Growth 5. Simulated GDP Growth 6. Simulated Inflation Rate Appendix Tables A1. Counts and Correlation of Business Cycles Regimes for the UK and Germany A2. Business Cycle Characteristics

Mr. John C Bluedorn, Rupa Duttagupta, Mr. Jaime Guajardo, and Petia Topalova

Types of Flow 3. Capital Flows: Correlations Between Inflows and Outflows 4. Capital Flows in percent GDP: Persistence 5. Capital Flows in percent GDP: Correlation with GDP Growth Appendix Table 1: Economy Groupings Figures 1. Cross Border Capital Flows 2. Greece: Composition of Gross and Net Capital Flows 3. The Evolution of Total Gross and Net Capital Flows 4. The Collapse and Recovery of Capital Flows by Type 5. Volatility of Capital Flows: Standard Deviation 6. Rolling Coefficient of Variation by Type of Flow 7. Correlations between

Kei-Mu Yi and Mr. Ayhan Kose

) , Calderon, Chong, and Stein (2002) , Baxter and Kouparitsas (2004) , and others have all found that, among industrialized countries, pairs of countries that trade more with each other exhibit a higher degree of business cycle comovement. 2 Using updated data, we re-estimate the FR regressions, and find that a doubling of the median (across all country-pairs) bilateral t