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Brandon Buell, Reda Cherif, Carissa Chen, Jiawen Tang, and Nils Wendt
The COVID-19 pandemic underscores the critical need for detailed, timely information on its evolving economic impacts, particularly for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where data availability and lack of generalizable nowcasting methodologies limit efforts for coordinated policy responses. This paper presents a suite of high frequency and granular country-level indicator tools that can be used to nowcast GDP and track changes in economic activity for countries in SSA. We make two main contributions: (1) demonstration of the predictive power of alternative data variables such as Google search trends and mobile payments, and (2) implementation of two types of modelling methodologies, machine learning and parametric factor models, that have flexibility to incorporate mixed-frequency data variables. We present nowcast results for 2019Q4 and 2020Q1 GDP for Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, and Ghana, and argue that our factor model methodology can be generalized to nowcast and forecast GDP for other SSA countries with limited data availability and shorter timeframes.
International Monetary Fund

GDP y-o-y growth in 2011:Q1 was 2.7 percent (0.9 percent with respect to the previous quarter), with investment surprising strongly on the upside. On this basis, we have revised our 2011 GDP growth projection to 1.9 percent, from 1.5 percent previously. GDP growth for 2012 is expected at 1.7 percent (compared to 1.5 percent before). 3. As a result of the faster cyclical upturn, projections for the headline fiscal balance have improved modestly . In particular, the deficit for 2011 is now estimated at 3½ percent of GDP (3¾ percent of GDP earlier), and a