some countries. Figure 6: Private-sector Employment Projections, Thousands Similarly, for the GCC aggregate, employment growth of an expected 4¾ percent per year exceeds the output growth forecast because of the lagged effects of past high output growth rates. Under the baseline, private-sector employment rises by 650 000 from 2.05 million in 2014 to 2.7 million in 2020 for GCC nationals. The red and yellow lines represent GDP growth rates that are 2 percent faster and slower, respectively, than baseline from 2016 onwards. For example, GCC employment
nationals 1 has not resulted from insufficient job creation, but from skills mismatches, high reservation wages, and the attractiveness of public-sector employment. Based on historic trends, and in light of the rapidly growing workforce, the number of unemployed GCC nationals could increase by as many as 2 to 3 million over the next 5 years, compared with approximately 5 million employed nationals in 2010. GCC Employment (Millions) Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff calculations. On the basis of staff calculations, GCC countries could be expected
was matched by a strong increase in total employment, from around 7 million workers in the GCC in 1990 to 16 million workers in 2009. Table 2.2 . Employment and population in the GCC, in millions Country Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE GCC Employment IMF (1990) 0.12 0.53 0.52 0.25 a 4.65 0.72 6.8 IMF (2009) 0.41 2.06 1.11 1.18 b 8.15 3.54 16.4 Population IMF (1980) 0.35 1.37 1.20 0.22 9.32 1.01 13.5 IMF (1990) 0