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Mr. Raphael A Espinoza, Ms. Ghada Fayad, and Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad

7.1 Introduction The global crisis exposed the vulnerabilities of the banks in the GCC countries to varying degrees. The favorable macroeconomic environment in the years preceding the global crisis had been conducive to high credit growth and lower nonperforming loans (NPLs) of banks. Although the direct exposure of the GCC banks to the subprime market was low, the global financial crisis and the fall in oil prices after the collapse of Lehman Brothers triggered a spiral of falling asset prices and liquidity and credit tightening. This interaction weakened

Padamja Khandelwal, Mr. Ken Miyajima, and Mr. Andre O Santos

Front Matter Page Middle East and Central Asia Department Contents Abstract I. Introduction II. Econometric Analysis A. Literature B. Data C. A multivariate model of NPLs D. A panel VAR model of oil-macro-financial linkages III. Movements in Bank capital and provisions in the GCC IV. Concluding Remarks References Tables 1. GCC: Dependence on Oil Revenues 2. GCC Size of the Financial System 3. Summary of Included GCC Banks 4. Determinants of Bank NPL Ratios in the GCC 5. Determinants of Bank NPL Ratios in the GCC

Ms. May Y Khamis, Abdullah Al-Hassan, and Nada Oulidi

. Distribution of Household Credit 11. Income Analysis of GCC Banks, 2005–Q1 2009 12. Banks’ Provisions and Investment Income, 2005–Q1 2009 13. Change in Bank Profitability, 2007–09 14. Banks’ External Financing 15. Banking Sector Liquidity in Selected Countries, 2007 16. Commercial Banks’ Reserves with Central Bank, December 2007 17. Liquidity Indicators of GCC Banking Sectors Box 1. Highlights of the GCC Financial Sector Appendixes I. List of Commercial Banks in GCC Countries II. Concentration of the Banking Sector III. Ownership Structure of GCC

Ms. May Y Khamis, Abdullah Al-Hassan, and Nada Oulidi
In this paper, we analyze the evolution of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) banking sectors in the six member countries including ownership, concentration, cross-border linkages, balance sheet exposures and risks, recent trends in credit growth, and financial soundness. We identify risks to the banking sector's financial stability in the context of the current global crisis and their mitigating factors.
Ms. May Y Khamis, Abdullah Al-Hassan, and Nada Oulidi

gauging sources of strengths and vulnerabilities, and understanding how these systems could be affected with changing economic conditions. In this paper, we examine GCC banking sectors’ balance sheet exposures, funding sources, shareholders and capital base structures, and financial soundness. We show that the financial systems in the region are dominated by the banking sector, which exhibits a number of common structural characteristics across countries. These have supported to a large extent GCC banks’ resilience to the financial crisis. First, the predominance of

Ms. May Y Khamis, Mr. Abdelhak S Senhadji, Mr. Gabriel Sensenbrenner, Mr. Francis Y Kumah, Maher Hasan, and Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad

1 Based on Bankscope data. The sample for the sector includes the top 49 banks (conventional and Islamic). The Islamic banks’ sample includes the top 18 Islamic banks. 2 Relatedly, a Passport Capital report concluded that Islamic banks in the GCC appeared to have been as exposed to the global environment as conventional ones. See Florence Eid and Lea Chaftari, September 2009, “Is the Cup Half Empty or Half Full? A Summary Report on 2nd Quarter Results from GCC banks.” 1 Source: MEED (a Middle East Business Intelligence group

Ms. May Y Khamis, Mr. Abdelhak S Senhadji, Mr. Gabriel Sensenbrenner, Mr. Francis Y Kumah, Maher Hasan, and Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad

-to-Equity Ratios for Listed Companies 15 GCC: Credit Default Swap Spreads on Five-Year Sovereign Debt, Mar. 2008–Jan. 7, 2010 16 GCC: Equity Market Indices, March 2008–January 7, 2010 17 GCC: Stress Indicators, March 2008–December 2009 18 GCC: Current Sovereign Short-Term Ratings and Maximum CDS Spreads, Since Mar. 2008 19 GCC: Commercial Banks’ Reserves with Central Bank, December 2007=100 20 GCC: Three-Month Interbank Rates, January 2007–November 2009 21 GCC: One-Year Currency Forward Premiums, January 2008–January 2010 22 GCC: Banks’ External Financing