Search Results

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 16 items for :

  • "GCC aggregate" x
Clear All
Mr. Serhan Cevik and Ms. Katerina Teksoz
This paper empirically investigates the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries using a structural vector autoregressive model. The results indicate that the interest rate and bank lending channels are relatively effective in influencing non-hydrocarbon output and consumer prices, while the exchange rate channel does not appear to play an important role as a monetary transmission mechanism because of the pegged exchange rate regimes. The empirical analysis suggests that policy measures and structural reforms - strengthening financial intermediation and facilitating the development of liquid domestic capital markets - would advance the effectiveness of monetary transmission mechanisms in the GCC countries.
Mr. Alberto Behar
We estimate the elasticity of private-sector employment to non-oil GDP in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) for GCC nationals and expatriates using a Seemingly Unrelated Error Correction (SUREC) model. Our results indicate that the employment response is lower for nationals, who have an estimated short-run elasticity of only 0.15 and a long-run response of 0.7 or less. The elasticity is almost unity for expatriates in the long run and 0.35 in the short run. We interpret low elasticities as indirect evidence of labor market adjustment costs, which could include hiring and firing rigidities, skills mismatches, and reluctance to accept private sector jobs. Forecasts suggest that, absent measures to reduce adjustment costs, the private sector will only be able to absorb a small portion of nationals entering the labor force.
Mr. Behrouz Guerami, Mr. S. Nuri Erbas, and Mr. George T. Abed

Front Matter Page Middle Easteren Department Authorized for distribution by George T. Abed Contents I. Introduction II. Basic Arguments III. Regressions A. Regression Specification B. Regression Results IV. Stability and Competitiveness V. Conclusions VI. Bibliography Text Tables 1. The GCC aggregative elasticity estimates ( c 1 , c 2 , c 3 ) and the implied value of α* 2. Example on competitiveness under the dollar peg 3. Example on competitiveness under the dollar-euro basket peg Figures 1. Monthly nominal dollar

Mr. Serhan Cevik and Ms. Katerina Teksoz

. Section II provides a brief overview of the various conventional channels of monetary transmission, followed in Section III by an analysis of recent macroeconomic developments and the financial infrastructure in the GCC countries that underpin the monetary transmission process. Section IV describes the empirical methodology and the benchmark SVAR specification. In Section V , we present an empirical assessment of monetary policy transmission mechanisms for individual GCC countries and for a “synthetic” GCC aggregate, while Section VI provides robustness checks

Mr. Behrouz Guerami, Mr. S. Nuri Erbas, and Mr. George T. Abed

, respectively, the REERs that apply to the $-R exchange rate and the €-R exchange rate, Y is the GCC aggregate real income, and M is real imports. We can define e and v as e = E   ( P P s ) ; v = V   ( P P ε ) ; ( 4 ) where, P is the GCC price level, P $ is the U.S. price level and P € is the euro zone price level. How and to what extent can the policy maker minimize the variability of e and v , if the home currency is

Mr. Behrouz Guerami, Mr. S. Nuri Erbas, and Mr. George T. Abed
We compare the dollar peg to a dollar-euro basket peg as alternative exchange rate regimes for the incipient Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) currency union. Quantitative evidence suggests basket peg does not dominate dollar peg for improving external stability. However, as GCC exports and external financial assets become more diversified, a more flexible exchange policy may be necessary for competitiveness and stability. Pegging the prospective common GCC currency to a basket, like the dollar-euro basket, may provide a conservative transitional strategy toward a more flexible exchange rate policy.
Mr. Alberto Behar

country. The rest of this section forecasts the level of employment under four scenarios: i. Baseline growth forecast and baseline elasticity ii. Slower growth forecast and baseline elasticity iii. Faster growth forecast and baseline elasticity iv. Baseline growth forecast and higher elasticity We generate forecasts for employment at a country level before summing the employment values to attain the GCC aggregate. Using the 2011 labor force as the weight for our five GCC countries, the aggregate non-oil GDP growth rate is forecast to average 3¼ percent

International Monetary Fund

,604.7 Current account balance, GCC countries 195.5 291.8 107.7 172.6 350.5 395.6 360.5 Oil price (US$ per barrel) 3 71.1 97.0 61.8 79.0 104.0 105.0 104.5 Oil production (million of barrels per day) 15.7 16.2 14.5 14.6 16.3 17.2 17.2 Sources: Country authorities; and IMF staff estimates. 1 GCC aggregates in the form of growth rates or shares of GDP are weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parities. GCC nominal GDP and current account correspond to the sum of the values for each country. 2

International Monetary Fund

.0 104.0 106.2 105.1    Oil production (million of barrels per day) 15.7 16.2 14.8 14.9 16.6 17.5 17.4 Sources: Country authorities; and IMF staff estimates. 1 GCC aggregates in the form of growth rates or shares of GDP are weighted by GDP valued at purchasing power parities. GCC nominal GDP and current account correspond to the sum of the values for each country. 2 Crude Oil (petroleum), simple average of three spot prices; Dated Brent, West Texas Intermediate, and the Dubai Fateh. Prepared by May

International Monetary Fund
The already sluggish global recovery has suffered new setbacks and uncertainty weighs heavily on prospects. The euro area crisis intensified in the first half of 2012 and growth has slowed across the globe, reflecting financial market tensions, extensive fiscal tightening in many countries, and high uncertainty about medium-term prospects. Activity is forecast to remain tepid and bumpy, with a further escalation of the euro-area crisis or a failure to avoid the “fiscal cliff” in the United States entailing significant downside risk.