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Cover IMF Working Papers
Monetary Policy Transmission in the GCC Countries
Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad and Mr. Raphael A Espinoza

literature has been a quarter, or even a month. We therefore investigate both VARs based on annual data and VARs based on quarterly data with annual GCC data interpolated into quarterly data. A. Data An eight-variable panel VAR was estimated on non-oil real GDP (the ‘GCC Y’ variable), government expenditure (GCC G), CPI inflation (GCC P), and broad money (GCC M2) in the GCC, from 1980 to 2010. 12 In addition, we used the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) as an indicator of imported monetary policy, and U.S. GDP (US Y), the U.S. Personal Consumption Deflator (US P)as well as the

Keywords:
WP; rate; monetary policy; GCC Y; lending rate; GCC monetary policy vis-à-vis; GCC rate; VAR model; interest rate pass-through; panel vector auto regression
Cover IMF Working Papers
Monetary Policy Transmission in the GCC Countries
Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad and Mr. Raphael A Espinoza
The GCC countries maintain a policy of open capital accounts and a pegged (or nearly-pegged) exchange rate, thereby reducing their freedom to run an independent monetary policy. This paper shows, however, that the pass-through of policy rates to retail rates is on the low side, reflecting the shallowness of money markets and the manner in which GCC central banks operate. In addition to policy rates, the GCC monetary authorities use reserve requirements, loan-to-deposit ratios, and other macroprudential tools to affect liquidity and credit. Nonetheless, a panel vector auto regression model suggests that U.S. monetary policy has a strong and statistically significant impact on broad money, non-oil activity, and inflation in the GCC region. Unanticipated shocks to broad money also affect prices but do not stimulate growth. Continued efforts to develop the domestic financial markets will increase interest rate pass-through and strengthen monetary policy transmission.
Keywords:
WP; rate; monetary policy; GCC Y; lending rate; Transmission mechanism; Fixed exchange rate regime; interest rate pass-through; panel VAR; interbank rate; monetary policy shock; deposit rate; fed funds rate; Interbank rates; Deposit rates; Vector autoregression; Central bank policy rate; Interest rate ceilings; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Front Matter
Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad and Mr. Raphael A Espinoza
Keywords:
WP; rate; monetary policy; GCC Y; lending rate
Cover IMF Survey
Boletín del FMI Vol.35, No.13 julio 2006
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
El Boletín del FMI aborda de manera específica el trabajo del FMI y los grandes temas macroeconómicos y financieros internacionales y ofrece análisis sobre la evolución en los distintos países y regiones y en el mundo; información sobre las operaciones, políticas, reformas y asistencia técnica del FMI; síntesis de las principales investigaciones económicas mundiales; datos fundamentales que no suelen estar disponibles en otras fuentes, e informes sobre debates económicos y financieros que tienen lugar dentro y fuera del FMI. Este boletín de 16 páginas, publicado 12 veces al año, está orientado a una vasta audiencia, que incluye autoridades de política económica, analistas, profesionales del mundo académico y de los medios de difusión y estudiantes. Disponible en inglés, español y francés.
Keywords:
SV; IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings; SDR; ECB monetary policy decision; IMF quota
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fiscal Adjustment in the Gulf Countries: Less Costly than Previously Thought
Mr. Armand P Fouejieu, Mr. Sergio L. Rodriguez, and Mr. Sohaib Shahid

the relationship between government spending and non-oil growth by exploring the impact of fiscal policy on non-oil output using updated estimates of the fiscal multiplier. Figure 1. Real Government Spending and Non-oil GDP Growth in the GCC (y-o-y percent change, GCC simple average) Using a panel OLS with fixed effects estimated over different time periods, our results indicate that fiscal multipliers have declined in recent years. This implies that fiscal consolidation may be less costly than previously thought. Though both capital and current

Keywords:
WP; government spending; GDP; multiplier; GCC economy; GCC government; GCC resident; oil growth; government expenditure
Cover Policy Papers
Gulf Cooperation Council
How Can Growth-Friendlier Expenditure-Based Fiscal Adjustment be Achieved in the GCC?
International Monetary Fund

multipliers suggests that fiscal consolidation efforts in the GCC could be less costly in terms of growth than before . The decline in the multipliers points to a fall in the efficiency of fiscal spending or crowding out of private sector employment and investment. Alternatively, as GCC fiscal spending increased and surpluses shrank, the private sector may have increased overall savings, reducing the impact of spending on aggregate demand. Government Spending and Non-Oil GDP Growth in the GCC (y-o-y percent change, GCC simple average) D. An Expenditure

Keywords:
PP; GCC country; government spending; GCC government; wage bill; expenditure adjustment; GCC experience; reform agenda; aggregate demand; expenditure cut; expenditure reform agenda; oil price; wage gap
Cover The Macroeconomics of the Arab States of the Gulf
6. Monetary Policy with a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime
Mr. Raphael A Espinoza, Ms. Ghada Fayad, and Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad

literature has been a quarter or even a month. We therefore investigate both VARs based on annual data and VARs based on quarterly data with annual GCC data interpolated into quarterly data. 6.5.1 Data An eight-variable panel VAR was estimated on non-oil real GDP (the “GCC Y” variable), government expenditure (GCC G), CPI inflation (GCC P), and broad money (GCC M2) in the GCC, from 1980 to 2010. 11 In addition, we used the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) as an indicator of imported monetary policy, and US GDP (US Y), the US Personal Consumption Deflator (US P), as well as the

Keywords:
BOOK; GCC country; bank; GCC economy; oil price; remittance outflow; GCC bank; Oil prices; Commercial banks; Nonperforming loans; Total factor productivity; Global; Europe; South Asia; East Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa; Asia and Pacific; VAR model; GCC growth; monetary policy shock; GCC monetary policy vis-à-vis; Deposit rates; Interbank rates; Vector autoregression; Inflation; Exchange rate arrangements